The enemy of my enemy is my friend—until he decides he wants to be the boss. The so-called "United Opposition," a patchwork coalition of President Ruto’s rivals, is facing its moment of truth. As they gather to pick a flagbearer for the 2027 General Election, the cracks are already turning into canyons.

The lineup is a "Team of Rivals" straight out of a political thriller: Kalonzo Musyoka (the eternal waiter), Eugene Wamalwa (the quiet operator), Martha Karua (the iron lady), and the bull in the china shop—impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. A recent meeting at Wamalwa’s headquarters, attended by Kalonzo, Gachagua, and Justin Muturi—but snubbed by Karua and Peter Munya—exposed the deep distrust festering at the heart of the alliance.

The Gachagua Dilemma

Rigathi Gachagua, leading his "Democracy for Citizens Party" (DCP), is the elephant in the room. He brings the numbers from Mount Kenya, a voting bloc the opposition desperately needs. But he also brings a toxic brand of abrasive politics that alienates the coalition's moderate partners. He has declared himself the "Alpha and Omega" of the opposition, a stance that has irritated the veteran Kalonzo, who feels it is finally his turn.

"Gachagua is not a team player; he is a hostile takeover artist," warns Kacheliba MP Titus Lotee. "He jeopardized his own government, and now he is jeopardizing the opposition. He is doing Ruto's work for him."

The Gender Card and the Integrity Test

Martha Karua’s absence speaks volumes. Her "People’s Liberation Party" (PLP) is demanding a process driven by integrity and gender inclusion, not backroom deals between tribal barons. She refuses to be a flower girl in a Gachagua-Kalonzo wedding.

• The Mount Kenya Split: With Gachagua claiming the Mountain, and Ruto eating away at its edges, the opposition cannot win without a unified central Kenya. But can Kalonzo sell Gachagua to his Ukambani base?
• The Ruto Factor: While they bicker, President Ruto is consolidating. He has the state machinery, the chequebook, and now, with Ida Odinga’s appointment, a foothold in Nyanza. A divided opposition is exactly what he is counting on.

The "United Opposition" is united only in name. Unless they can solve the Gachagua variable—how to use his numbers without succumbing to his ego—they will be easy pickings for the Hustler machine in 2027. The clock is ticking, and the table is already shaking.