NAIROBI – Kenya’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is facing its first major test ahead of the 2027 General Election, as voters in 24 electoral areas head to the polls on Thursday, November 27, 2025. The by-elections for one senatorial seat, six members of the National Assembly, and 17 Members of County Assembly (MCAs) are widely viewed as a crucial barometer of the nation's political climate and the IEBC's capacity to manage a credible and peaceful process.

The mini-polls are set against a backdrop of shifting political alliances, escalating tensions, and significant public scrutiny of the electoral body. These elections are the first to be overseen by the new commission, led by Chairperson Erastus Ethekon, which has been under pressure to implement key reforms and rebuild public trust following contentious previous elections. In a statement on Friday, November 22, 2025, the IEBC assured the nation of its preparedness, confirming the dispatch of all election materials from its Nairobi warehouse and the deployment of trained officials. "We are ready... and we appeal for calm and non-violence. Let the will of the people prevail," an IEBC official stated, emphasizing that the government has deployed sufficient security to ensure the polls are uninterrupted.

A Litmus Test for 2027 Political Battle Lines

These by-elections have morphed into a national contest, framing the emerging battle lines for 2027. They pit President William Ruto’s broad-based government, which includes his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), against a newly formed “United Opposition” coalition. This new opposition bloc features prominent figures such as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Eugene Wamalwa. Leaders from all camps have explicitly described the polls as a “dress rehearsal” for the next general election, using them to test strategies and gauge public support. The United Opposition, for instance, is fielding single candidates in key races to avoid splitting votes, a strategy they hope to perfect for 2027.

Several constituencies have emerged as key battlegrounds:

• Mbeere North: This race is a direct political confrontation between Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who is campaigning for the UDA candidate, and Rigathi Gachagua, who is backing the Democratic Party’s candidate. The outcome is seen as a referendum on President Ruto’s influence in the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region following his fallout with Gachagua.
• Malava: In Western Kenya, the contest is a significant test of UDA’s strength against the United Opposition’s candidate from the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K). President Ruto's close allies have been heavily involved in the campaign, highlighting the high stakes for the ruling party.
• Kasipul: The ODM party faces a severe credibility test in its traditional stronghold. Its candidate is locked in a tight race with a popular independent contender, a situation that could reshape local politics.

The Baringo County senatorial race, however, is expected to be a smooth victory for the UDA after former area Senator Gideon Moi withdrew his candidacy following discussions with President Ruto.

Electoral Integrity and Violence Concerns

Despite the IEBC's assurances, the campaign period has been marred by significant concerns over electoral integrity. Incidents of violence, widespread voter bribery, and inflammatory rhetoric have raised alarms among observers. In Kasipul constituency, violent clashes between rival supporters on November 6, 2025, tragically resulted in the deaths of two young men from severe head injuries. The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) is reportedly investigating several political leaders for hate speech.

Human rights and election monitoring groups have voiced serious concerns. Amnesty International Kenya described the by-elections as "the most significant stress test of our electoral ecosystem before 2027." The Elections Observation Group (ELOG) has formally petitioned the IEBC to take firm action against public officers engaging in partisan campaigns, which is illegal under Kenyan law. The vacancies for these polls arose from a mix of incumbent deaths, court nullifications of 2022 election results, and the appointment of sitting legislators to cabinet and other state positions. The delay in filling these posts, which in some cases exceeded the constitutionally mandated 90-day period, was due to the lengthy process of reconstituting the IEBC itself.

As Kenyans in these 24 areas cast their ballots on Thursday, the performance of the IEBC in ensuring a free, fair, and peaceful process will be as closely watched as the political outcomes themselves. The results will not only fill vacant seats but will also offer a critical preview of the political realignments and electoral challenges that lie on the road to 2027.