Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma has unveiled a controversial long-term roadmap for the Orange Democratic Movement, arguing that cementing a coalition with President Ruto today is the only viable path to the presidency in 2032.

In a candid and explosive assessment of Kenya's shifting political landscape, Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma has told his ODM party colleagues that the road to State House passes through William Ruto's UDA. Dismissing the purists who advocate for a return to opposition politics, Kaluma argued that the "Broad-Based Government" is not a temporary stopgap but a strategic vehicle that ODM must commandeer. His declaration, "ODM must secure the DP slot in 2027 and the Presidency in 2032," has sent shockwaves through the Azimio coalition, signaling a potential death knell for the opposition alliance.

Kaluma's logic is rooted in the brutal arithmetic of Kenyan ethnic coalitions. With the Mt Kenya voting bloc seemingly fracturing away from Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Kaluma sees a vacuum that Nyanza can fill. "We cannot be in opposition forever," Kaluma told supporters in Homa Bay. "We have supported others for decades. Now, we must position ourselves where the power is shared, not where the teargas is lobbed."

The 2027 Calculus: A Luo DP?

The MP's strategy hinges on a negotiated pact where President Ruto drops his current embattled deputy in favor of an ODM stalwart—likely from the Nyanza region—as his running mate in 2027. This, Kaluma argues, would lock in the Luo vote for Ruto's second term, guaranteeing a landslide victory. In exchange, the UDA machine would back an ODM candidate for the top seat in 2032.

• The Risk: This strategy assumes President Ruto is a man of his word, a gamble that has burned many political careers before.
• The Resistance: Hardliners within ODM, led by the likes of Siaya Governor James Orengo and Babu Owino, view this as capitulation. They argue that ODM's strength lies in its anti-establishment credentials and that "sleeping with the enemy" will alienate the base.
• The Gachagua Factor: Kaluma dismisses the current DP, stating, "We are going beyond 2027 without Gachagua." This openly hostile stance confirms that the ODM faction in government is actively working to displace the Mt Kenya kingpin.

The End of Azimio?

Kaluma's pronouncements effectively declare the Azimio la Umoja coalition dead. By openly plotting a future with UDA, he is telling coalition partners like Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K) that they are on their own. "Imagine Eugene Wamalwa claiming to leave Azimio... Which Azimio?" Kaluma scoffed on social media. "ODM is the system now."

This pivot represents a profound ideological shift for a party born out of the struggle against state authoritarianism. Critics argue that Kaluma is merely justifying "stomach politics" and the desire for state patronage. However, supporters see it as realpolitik—a pragmatic recognition that in the "New World Order" of Kenyan politics, you are either at the table eating, or on the menu being eaten. For Kaluma, the goal is clear: ensure ODM is the chef by 2032, even if it means serving as the waiter in 2027.