National Implications of Local Contests

Voters in 24 electoral areas across Kenya will head to the polls on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in a series of by-elections that have morphed into a national political showdown. These contests, for one senatorial seat, six National Assembly positions, and 17 county assembly wards, are widely regarded as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 General Election. The mini-polls represent the first major electoral test for President William Ruto’s broad-based government—which now includes the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)—and a newly formed “United Opposition” coalition that features his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.

The elections are being managed by the recently appointed Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), led by Chairperson Erastus Ethekon. For the new commission, these polls are a crucial stress test of its operational readiness and capacity to manage a credible process, following contentious previous elections. According to an IEBC gazette notice on August 8, 2025, the vacancies arose from various causes, including the death of incumbents, court nullifications of 2022 election results, and the appointment of legislators to cabinet and other state positions. The commission has cleared a total of 181 candidates for the contests. The official campaign period concluded on Monday, November 24, 2025, at midnight EAT.

Key Battlegrounds: Mbeere North and Malava

Among the most intensely watched races are the parliamentary contests in Mbeere North and Malava, which have become direct confrontations between the highest levels of the executive. In Mbeere North, Embu County, the by-election is framed as a test of political dominance in the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is leading the campaign for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate, Leonard Wamuthende. He faces a formidable challenge from the Democratic Party's Newton Kariuki, who is backed by the United Opposition, led by Mr. Gachagua. A loss for UDA in this constituency could significantly impact DP Kindiki's standing as the region's political custodian ahead of 2027.

Similarly, the Malava constituency race in Western Kenya is a critical test of influence for Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi. Mr. Mudavadi and other Kenya Kwanza heavyweights have thrown their weight behind UDA’s David Ndakwa. The President's influential aide, Farouk Kibet, has also been a prominent figure in the UDA campaign, signaling the high stakes for the ruling party. They are challenged by Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party–Kenya (DAP-K), who is supported by the united opposition, including Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and party leader Eugene Wamalwa. A victory for the opposition here would be seen as a significant check on the government's inroads into the historically opposition-leaning region.

Other Contests and Rising Tensions

The Baringo County senatorial by-election, triggered by the death of Senator William Cheptumo, is expected to be a less contentious race for the ruling UDA party, particularly after KANU Chairman Gideon Moi withdrew from the race following discussions with the president. In Siaya County, the Ugunja constituency seat, vacated by Opiyo Wandayi upon his appointment to the cabinet, is anticipated to be a comfortable win for ODM.

However, the Kasipul constituency contest in Homa Bay County has been marred by violence. Clashes between rival supporters on November 6, 2025, resulted in the tragic deaths of two people. This has raised concerns about electoral security, with human rights groups like Amnesty International Kenya describing the by-elections as “the most significant stress test of our electoral ecosystem before 2027.” The race there is also a test of local ODM dynamics, pitting Governor Gladys Wanga, who supports the party candidate, against her deputy, who is backing an independent.

The IEBC and the National Police Service have assured the public of their preparedness and have put heightened security measures in place, particularly in potential flashpoints. As Kenyans await the outcomes, these mini-polls serve as a clear barometer of the shifting political landscape, the strength of new alliances, and the challenges that lie on the road to the 2027 elections.