High-Stakes Contest Shapes Up in Mt. Kenya East

A united opposition front, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, concluded a weekend tour of Mbeere North, Embu County, on Sunday, November 16, 2025, intensifying a high-stakes campaign ahead of the constituency's by-election scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025. The mini-poll, which has attracted national attention, is widely seen as a crucial political barometer, testing the influence of both the government and a newly-formed opposition alliance in the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region.

The parliamentary seat fell vacant following President William Ruto's appointment of the area's first-term MP, Geoffrey Ruku, as Cabinet Secretary for Public Service in April 2025. The by-election is one of 23 polls being conducted by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on the same day to fill vacancies in the National Assembly, Senate, and various county assemblies.

Opposition Rallies Support Amid Allegations of Intimidation

During the tour, which included stops at Kanyuambora, Kabubua, and Ishiara, Mr. Gachagua and other opposition principals rallied support for Newton Karish of the Democratic Party (DP). The opposition has coalesced around Mr. Karish as a unity candidate. Key leaders present included Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-K's Eugene Wamalwa, and DP leader Justin Muturi, who is a former ally of President Ruto. Addressing supporters, Gachagua accused the government of deploying state machinery to intimidate voters and influence the outcome. "No amount of intimidation would deter him from campaigning for a joint opposition candidate," Gachagua stated, vowing to camp in the constituency to ensure victory for Karish.

The campaign has been fraught with tension. On Saturday, November 15, UDA Chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire filed a police complaint, accusing Gachagua's camp of planning to cause chaos and blame it on the ruling party. Gachagua's team has countered with its own allegations, writing to the Inspector General of Police on November 12 to report threats of violence against him and his supporters, allegedly orchestrated by individuals linked to senior government officials. The IEBC has since identified Mbeere North as a volatile area, warning that candidates breaching the electoral code of conduct risk suspension from the campaign.

A Litmus Test for Ruto and Gachagua

The Mbeere North contest is framed as a direct political duel between President Ruto and his former deputy, Gachagua, following their political fallout which culminated in Gachagua's impeachment in October 2024. The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has fielded Leonard Muriuki Muthende and has mobilized senior government officials to campaign for him, signaling the importance it attaches to winning the seat and reasserting its dominance in the region. Recent opinion polls suggest a tight race, with one survey from Kenya Track in late October placing Muthende slightly ahead of Karish, though a significant number of voters remained undecided.

For the opposition, a victory in Mbeere North would provide significant momentum for their new alliance, which is still finalizing its formal structure and name ahead of the 2027 general election. DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa described the unity on display in Embu as a sign of a major political shift in the Mt. Kenya region.

Local Issues and National Implications

While national political figures dominate the headlines, local issues remain central to the campaign. Mbeere North, a semi-arid constituency, grapples with significant challenges, including inadequate water supply, poor infrastructure, and a heavy reliance on subsistence agriculture. Both camps have tailored their messages to address these concerns. The opposition has focused on the rising cost of living and alleged government neglect, while the ruling party has campaigned on its development track record and future projects.

As the November 27 polling day approaches, the focus intensifies on this small constituency, whose electorate of just over 55,000 voters now holds a significant say in the country's evolving political landscape. The outcome is expected to have repercussions far beyond Embu County, potentially reshaping political alliances and strategies for all major players looking towards 2027.