Heightened Political Tensions

NAIROBI, KENYA – The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has publicly called on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to disregard allegations of a plot to rig the upcoming by-elections, labelling them as desperate manoeuvres by a rival camp anticipating defeat. The statement, issued on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, EAT, came in direct response to claims by the United Opposition, led by figures such as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and DAP-K's Eugene Wamalwa. The opposition alleges a coordinated scheme to manipulate the polls in key battlegrounds, including Mbeere North, Malava, and Magarini constituencies.

Allegations and Counter-Allegations

The United Opposition has made specific and serious claims, suggesting a plot involving pre-marked ballot papers and the complicity of state agencies. On Wednesday, opposition leaders alleged that 15,000 pre-marked ballots were destined for Mbeere North, with another 10,000 each for Malava and Magarini. Mr. Gachagua further accused the IEBC of being "totally compromised" and claimed that uniformed and plain-clothed officers were being deployed to facilitate ballot-stuffing. These accusations were formalized in a letter to IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon, citing incidents of campaign obstruction in Narok.

In a sharp rebuttal, UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar characterized the opposition's strategy as an attack on democratic institutions. "These claims are nothing more than a predictable attempt to politicise the electoral process and prepare the ground for rejecting the will of the people," the UDA statement read. The party defended the IEBC's professionalism and transparency, urging the commission to remain focused on delivering a credible election. UDA officials, including Chairperson Cecily Mbarire, have also accused the opposition of planning to cause chaos and engaging in voter bribery in constituencies like Mbeere North.

IEBC's Position and Preparedness

The by-elections, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, EAT, will be held in 24 electoral areas, including one senatorial seat, six parliamentary constituencies, and 17 county assembly wards. These polls are widely seen as the first major test for the newly constituted IEBC, led by Chairperson Erastus Ethekon. The commission has finalized the registration of 181 candidates and has set the official campaign period from October 8 to November 24, 2025.

In response to the escalating war of words, Mr. Ethekon has assured the public of the commission's commitment to a fair and impartial process. Acknowledging the allegations as "weighty," he stated that the IEBC would not be swayed by political rhetoric and is dedicated to upholding its constitutional mandate. "Nobody is going to steal an election or stuff ballot papers. We are free from influence—from the President to the sweepers," Ethekon affirmed in an interview on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, EAT. The IEBC has also confirmed that security will be heightened, with both uniformed and plain-clothed officers deployed to monitor highly competitive areas and ensure peace.

Focus on Key Battlegrounds

The Mbeere North and Magarini by-elections have become focal points of the dispute. In Magarini, Mr. Gachagua accused IEBC Vice Chairperson Fahima Araphat Abdallah of misconduct, alleging she intimidated local electoral officials on November 21, 2025, EAT, in a bid to influence the selection of presiding officers. UDA vehemently defended Ms. Abdallah, dismissing the claims as a "misguided missile of pent-up vendetta" and a "political tantrum."

The Mbeere North contest is framed as a supremacy battle, intensifying the rivalry between factions aligned with President William Ruto and Mr. Gachagua. Both sides have accused the other of importing "goons" to intimidate voters and disrupt the election. These by-elections are considered a significant political barometer, testing the influence of the ruling party and the newly formed opposition alliance ahead of the 2027 General Election.