As Uganda heads to the ballot box under the shadow of an internet blackout and military patrols, the world’s eyes are fixed on President Yoweri Museveni’s bid for a seventh term. But beyond the teargas and the tweets of Bobi Wine, what really drives our western neighbor? Here are five critical facts to understand the stakes.

1. A Nation of Kids

Uganda is one of the youngest countries on Earth. Over 77% of its population is under the age of 30. This demographic bulge is the engine of the opposition; most voters have never known another president. For them, Museveni is not a liberator but a grandfather figure who won't retire. This generation gap is the fault line of the entire election.

2. The Oil Factor

Beneath the political noise lies a slick reality: crude oil. Uganda is on the cusp of becoming a major oil producer, with the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) set to transport black gold to Tanga, Tanzania. Museveni argues he is the only one trusted to steward this new wealth. Critics fear it will merely entrench patronage politics.

3. The Military State

Unlike Kenya, where the military largely stays in the barracks during polls, the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) is a central political player. Museveni, a general himself, treats the army as his primary constituency. The sight of soldiers patrolling Kampala is not an anomaly; it is the default setting of the state's authority.

4. The Refugee Capital

Quietly, Uganda hosts more refugees than almost any other African nation—over 1.5 million, mostly from South Sudan and DRC. Its progressive "open door" policy allows refugees to work and farm. Instability in Kampala doesn't just hurt Ugandans; it threatens a regional sanctuary for the displaced.

5. The Matoke Economy

Despite the headlines, Uganda remains an agrarian powerhouse. It is Kenya’s biggest trading partner, supplying cheap maize, milk, and eggs. Any disruption to the border flow at Busia or Malaba sends food prices in Nairobi skyrocketing immediately. As they vote, they hold our breakfast tables hostage.