Following the seismic shift in Kenyan politics after the passing of Raila Odinga in late 2025, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is fracturing. At the center of the storm is the firebrand Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna.

The question on every lip in Orange House is simple: Who owns the future of the opposition? The "Old Guard," led by Party Leader Oburu Oginga, seems intent on a conciliatory approach with President Ruto’s government—a "Handshake 2.0" designed to secure legacy and stability.

But the "Young Turks," characterized by the aggressive "Wantam" politics of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, are having none of it.

The Ouster That Wasn't

The drama peaked this week with a chaotic National Executive Council (NEC) meeting in Mombasa. The Oburu faction moved to "eject" Sifuna from the Secretary-General post, replacing him with Catherine Omanyo. Their grievance? Sifuna’s refusal to toe the party line on cooperation with the UDA government.

However, the coup appears to have stalled. The Political Parties Disputes Tribunal has suspended the move, and Sifuna has emerged not chastened, but emboldened. "ODM remains an opposition party," Sifuna declared yesterday, directly contradicting the cooperative tone set by his party superiors.

The "United Opposition" Charm Offensive

Sensing blood in the water, the newly formed "United Opposition"—a marriage of convenience between Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua—is circling. They see Sifuna not just as a recruit, but as the key to unlocking the youth vote that ODM risks losing.

Sources indicate that Gachagua’s camp has extended an open invitation to Sifuna and Owino to cross the floor. "Fools cannot tolerate intelligent men," tweeted a DCP aspirant, signaling that Sifuna would find a home free of "dynastic" gatekeeping in their camp.

The Endgame

If Sifuna defects, it would signal the death knell of ODM as a radical force for change, effectively reducing it to a regional Luo-Nyanza party. But if he stays and wins the internal war, he could pivot the party back to its street-protest roots.

For the millions of "Raila Orphans" looking for direction, the Sifuna saga is not just boardroom politics; it is a battle for the very soul of the resistance.