After nearly two decades in power, the SNP is facing the one enemy no government can defeat: time. As trust erodes, a shock poll shows the populist Right is surging in the unlikeliest of places.

It is a political axiom that governments, like milk, eventually go sour. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) has defied this gravity for 19 years, a phenomenal run that has reshaped the UK's constitutional fabric. But as the May 2026 Holyrood election approaches, the expiration date may finally be looming. A shock poll has placed the populist Reform UK party in second place, overtaking Labour—a result that would have been unthinkable just five years ago.

For Kenyan observers of devolution, the Scottish case is a fascinating mirror. Just as our own governors face "incumbency fatigue" after two terms, the SNP is grappling with a voter base that is tired of promises. The dream of independence, once the potent fuel of the party, has stalled, replaced by the mundane realities of failing public services, ferry scandals, and internal leadership coups.

The Populist Surge

The rise of Reform UK in Scotland—a nation traditionally seen as left-leaning and socially liberal—is the headline story. It mirrors the global trend of anti-establishment sentiment. Voters, disillusioned by the "uniparty" feel of the establishment (be it Labour in London or the SNP in Edinburgh), are looking for a wrecking ball. Nigel Farage's party offers just that: a loud, unapologetic rejection of the status quo.

Labour, led locally by Anas Sarwar, is in a tailspin. Desperate to distance himself from an unpopular Westminster government, Sarwar has even called for Keir Starmer to resign—a chaotic move that reeks of panic. Meanwhile, SNP leader John Swinney is left defending a 19-year record that looks increasingly threadbare.

The End of an Era?

The May election is shaping up to be a realignment election. If the polls hold, the SNP may win but be critically weakened, forced to govern in a chaotic parliament with a surging populist opposition. It is a lesson in political mortality: no matter how dominant a party seems, if it stops delivering on the bread-and-butter issues, the voters will eventually look for a new piper to play the tune.