The fragile unity of Kenya’s opposition is cracking. In a candid and explosive interview, activist Morara Kebaso has predicted the imminent departure of Martha Karua from the "United Opposition," claiming the alliance led by Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka has become a cynical vessel of self-interest with no room for those who cannot put tribal numbers on the table.

Speaking on the popular Iko Nini Podcast, Morara did not mince his words. He painted a picture of an opposition outfit that has lost its way, prioritizing boardroom power-sharing deals over the urgent needs of the mwananchi. According to Morara, the "Iron Lady" of Kenyan politics is finding herself increasingly isolated in a coalition that values ethnic arithmetic over integrity and reform.

"How Many Votes Are You Bringing?"

"Martha Karua might soon find the United Opposition a place not to stay," Morara warned. The brutal reality of Kenyan coalition politics is catching up with the Narc Kenya leader. Morara argues that when the rubber meets the road, the power brokers will ask the cold, hard question: "How many votes are you bringing from your tribe?"

This reduction of a national leader to a tribal chieftain is a damning indictment of our political culture. Karua, who has often positioned herself above tribal fray, is reportedly struggling to assert her value in a room dominated by leaders who command near-fanatical ethnic blocks. Her reliance on the "women's vote" is being dismissed by her colleagues as a myth, with Morara noting that "women do not necessarily vote along gender lines."

• The Gachagua Factor: The entry of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua into the opposition space has shifted the center of gravity. His aggressive mobilization of the Mt. Kenya base leaves little room for Karua to claim supremacy in the region.
• The Self-Interest Trap: Morara, who has sat in these meetings, claims the leaders are "not concerned about issues bedeviling Kenyans." It is a club of the aggrieved, not a coalition of the willing.
• The Exit Strategy: If Karua leaves, it could signal the death knell for the "United Opposition's" claim to being a broad-based alternative. It would reduce them to a regional alliance, easy pickings for President Ruto's machine in 2027.

A Coalition of Chaos

Morara’s insights peel back the veneer of unity. He describes a group paralyzed by suspicion, where every move is calculated to maximize personal leverage rather than collective victory. For Karua, a politician who prides herself on principle, this environment is becoming toxic.

As 2027 approaches, the realignment is inevitable. If Morara’s prediction holds, Karua’s exit will not just be a personal decision; it will be a symptom of a deeper rot in our opposition politics—where ideas die, and tribal kingpins reign supreme.