MACHAKOS, KENYA – Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka made a passionate and personal appeal to voters in Machakos County on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, framing the upcoming Mumbuni North ward by-election as a critical referendum on his political future. Speaking at the inaugural Machakos Youth Service graduation ceremony, Musyoka urged residents to vote for the Wiper candidate, Anthony Kisoi, stating that a defeat would expose him to political ridicule and weaken his standing as the Ukambani region's kingpin.

“If Wiper loses the Mumbuni North Ward seat... they would say, ‘Kalonzo wants to become the president of Kenya when he cannot deliver a ward seat’. Save me from the embarrassment. They have set a trap. Help me jump it,” Musyoka stated, directly linking the local contest to his national ambitions. The plea underscores the high stakes of the November 27, 2025, by-election, which has become a focal point for regional and national political tensions.

The by-election was necessitated by the death of the previous Member of County Assembly (MCA), Gideon Kavuu, who was elected on a Maendeleo Chap Chap (MCC) party ticket in 2023. The contest is now a three-way battle, not just between the opposition and the ruling coalition, but also within the Kenya Kwanza alliance itself. Wiper's Anthony Kisoi faces Harrison Wambua of MCC and Misi Mutua of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

A Litmus Test for Ukambani Dominance

For Musyoka, the election is a crucial test of his influence in a region he has long considered his political bedrock. A victory for Wiper would serve as a powerful statement of his continued dominance and act as a springboard for his 2027 presidential campaign. Machakos Governor Wavinya Ndeti, a key Musyoka ally, reinforced this message, stating, “Let us rally behind Mr Kisoi because his victory is not just his alone; it is a win for our party leader, Mr Musyoka, and a proud victory for the entire Kamba community.”

Leaders within the Wiper party have explicitly called the by-election a “dress rehearsal for the 2027 presidential race.” Machakos Senator Agnes Kavindu argued that a win for Kisoi would send a clear message to other opposition principals that Musyoka is the rightful flagbearer for any opposition coalition.

Cracks in the Kenya Kwanza Coalition

The by-election has also exposed significant friction within President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition. The decision by both UDA and MCC to field separate candidates highlights the growing rivalry between key Ukambani leaders within the government. MCC, associated with Labour and Social Protection Cabinet Secretary Alfred Mutua, claims it is entitled to the seat as the late MCA was a member of the party. However, UDA, pushed by Mwala MP Vincent Kawaya, has fielded its own candidate, leading to a split in the government's support base.

This internal division could play to Wiper’s advantage, splitting the vote and paving the way for a Kisoi victory. The rivalry reflects a broader struggle for influence in the region, as different factions seek to establish themselves as the dominant force within the Kenya Kwanza structure in Ukambani.

National Implications of a Local Vote

The outcome of the Mumbuni North contest will have repercussions far beyond Machakos. A loss for Wiper would provide significant political ammunition to Musyoka's rivals, who have long questioned the solidity of his grip on the Kamba vote. It would embolden leaders like former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and other potential opposition contenders who are also positioning themselves for 2027.

Conversely, a decisive Wiper victory would reaffirm Musyoka's authority, strengthen his negotiating position in national alliance-building, and silence critics. It would demonstrate that despite inroads by the ruling coalition, his influence in the region remains paramount. As voters head to the polls on Thursday, November 27, the election is more than a choice for a local representative; it is a verdict on the political trajectory of Kalonzo Musyoka and the future of Ukambani politics on the national stage.