Traders in Uasin Gishu warn that banning flavoured tobacco will not stop consumption but will detonate a black market explosion.

A storm is brewing in the country’s breadbasket as traders in Eldoret vehemently oppose the proposed Tobacco Control (Amendment) Bill. Their argument is counter-intuitive but economically sound: banning flavoured tobacco products, such as vapes and nicotine pouches, will not save lives—it will destroy legitimate businesses and hand a monopoly to the criminal underworld. Speaking from the heart of Eldoret, the traders painted a grim picture of a future where regulation fails and the black market thrives.

The Economics of Prohibition

Holliab Lodenyo, the Chairman of Bars, Hotels, and Liquor Traders in Uasin Gishu County, led the charge. "We support lawful measures," Lodenyo asserted, "But the proposed flavour ban risks creating a gap that illicit traders are likely to exploit." His concerns are backed by alarming data from the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), which suggests that over 50% of excisable goods in the Kenyan market—including alcohol and cigarettes—are already illicit.

The logic is simple: demand for flavoured nicotine products is inelastic. If the legal, tax-paying shops cannot sell them, consumers will simply turn to the unregulated "suitcase traders" who smuggle goods across porous borders. These illicit products are not only untaxed, depriving the exchequer of billions, but they are also uninspected, posing a far greater health risk to consumers than the regulated alternatives.

• The Revenue Risk: The government is currently struggling to meet revenue targets. Banning a popular category of excisable goods is, in the eyes of the traders, an act of fiscal self-sabotage.
• Livelihoods at Stake: Small business owners who have invested in stocking legitimate, compliant products face financial ruin if their inventory is suddenly criminalized.

A Call for Enforcement, Not Bans

The traders’ proposal to the Senate is pragmatic: enforce the existing laws. The Tobacco Control Act of 2007 already prohibits the sale of tobacco to minors. The failure, they argue, is in enforcement, not in the lack of legislation. "We ask the Senate to prioritize measures that curb illicit trade... rather than introduce policies that may inadvertently create new risks," Lodenyo urged.

This debate touches on a global tension between public health and economic reality. While the intention to protect minors is noble, the method is flawed. Prohibition history, from alcohol in the 1920s to narcotics today, teaches one lesson: you cannot ban demand. By pushing the market underground, the government risks losing control entirely. The traders of Eldoret are sending a clear signal: do not legislate us out of business only to pave the way for cartels.