The simmering succession wars within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) have boiled over, with Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera firing a bold salvo at the Odinga family. In a pointed warning to Senator Oburu Oginga, Nabwera declared that the party’s fanatical loyalty to Raila Odinga cannot be inherited by his brother or any other proxy.

Nabwera’s outburst exposes the fragile fault lines in the opposition party as it navigates the post-Raila era. With the former Prime Minister eyeing the African Union Commission chairmanship, the scramble for the soul of ODM has intensified, pitting the "old guard" against a restless generation of "Young Turks."

The Dynastic Dilemma

"We loved Raila because he fought for us in the trenches," Nabwera told a gathering in Kakamega. "But respect is earned, not bequeathed in a will. Mheshimiwa Oburu must know that the ODM base is not a herd of sheep to be handed over to the next kin. We will choose our own path."

• The Context: Oburu Oginga has been positioning himself as the custodian of the Odinga political estate.
• The Threat: Western Kenya MPs are increasingly demanding a seat at the high table, threatening to walk if the party leadership remains a Nyanza affair.

A Party at Crossroads

The statement highlights a critical existential crisis for ODM. For two decades, the party has been held together by the singular, magnetic personality of Raila Odinga. Without his unifying presence, the disparate tribal coalitions that form the party are beginning to fray.

As the 2027 calculus begins, Nabwera’s warning serves as a bellwether: the age of unquestioning loyalty is over. Any leader seeking to inherit Raila’s mantle will have to fight for it, not in the boardroom, but in the muddy marketplace of politics.