The fragile peace in the Horn of Africa is fracturing. In a blistering diplomatic escalation, Addis Ababa has formally accused Asmara of fueling the Fano insurgency, alleging that Eritrean intelligence operatives are smuggling heavy weaponry to rebels in the Amhara region.

The accusation, delivered via a Ministry of Foreign Affairs communiqué, marks the lowest point in relations between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki since their 2018 peace deal—a pact that once won Abiy a Nobel Prize. Now, former allies in the Tigray war appear to be turning their guns, or at least their proxies, on each other.

The Proxy War Returns

"We have irrefutable evidence of cross-border logistical support," the Ethiopian statement read. The implications are dire for the region. A renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea would likely draw in neighboring Sudan and destabilize the entire East African corridor.

• The Amhara Factor: The Fano militia, once allies of the federal government against Tigray, have turned against Abiy’s administration, accusing him of betrayal. Eritrean support would transform them from a ragtag militia into a formidable conventional threat.
• Asmara’s Play: Analysts suggest Isaias is seeking to weaken a resurgent Ethiopia to maintain his role as the region’s kingmaker. By backing the Amhara rebels, he keeps Addis Ababa preoccupied internally.

Kenya’s Dilemma

For Nairobi, this is a nightmare scenario. Ethiopia is a key economic partner (LAPSSET corridor) and a buffer against Al-Shabaab. A destabilized Ethiopia sends refugees south and guns across the Moyale border. President Ruto’s diplomatic machinery is reportedly working overtime behind the scenes to de-escalate, but the drums of war in the north are beating louder by the day.