Voters in Ugunja Constituency, Siaya County, will head to the polls on Thursday, November 27, 2025, to elect a new Member of Parliament in a by-election that has drawn significant national attention. The contest, triggered by the appointment of the area's three-term MP, James Opiyo Wandayi, as Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum, is shaping up to be a critical measure of the Orange Democratic Movement's (ODM) enduring influence in its traditional stronghold.

According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), approximately 60,114 registered voters are expected to participate in the election across 117 polling stations. The IEBC has cleared eleven candidates for the race and has assured the public of its commitment to conducting a free, fair, and credible process, dispatching election materials to the constituency ahead of the polling day.

The Candidates and Shifting Alliances

The frontrunner is widely seen as Moses Omondi, the ODM flagbearer and former Ugunja Constituency Development Fund (CDF) manager. Omondi secured the party's ticket after winning the primaries in September 2025 with 5,329 votes. His campaign is built on a platform of continuity, leveraging his experience under the former MP, CS Wandayi, and the formidable political machinery of the ODM party.

In a surprising turn that reflects the country's fluid political landscape, Omondi has received backing from leaders allied with President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Initially, UDA had announced plans to field its own candidate, but President Ruto later stated that the ruling coalition would support the ODM nominee in the spirit of national unity, a product of the broad-based government agreement. This has led to joint campaign rallies featuring prominent figures from both sides of the political divide, including National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung'wah and Kericho Senator Aaron Cheruiyot, campaigning alongside Siaya Governor James Orengo and other ODM stalwarts.

However, Omondi faces a spirited challenge from several candidates aiming to break ODM's long-standing dominance. Key challengers include Chris Budo of KANU and Maurice (MJ) Okumu of the Liberal Party of Kenya (LPK), who argue that the constituency needs a change from imposed leadership. These candidates are campaigning on platforms of transparency, economic empowerment, and accountable leadership, tapping into a sentiment among some voters who desire a move away from political patronage.

The 'Raila Effect' and National Implications

While the late opposition leader Raila Odinga is not on the ballot, his influence looms large over the contest. For decades, an ODM endorsement in Nyanza was tantamount to an election victory. Senior ODM leaders, including Governor Orengo and acting party leader Dr. Oburu Oginga, have framed a vote for Omondi as a vote to uphold the party's strength and honour the late leader's legacy. They argue that a decisive win for ODM in Ugunja will strengthen the party's position on the national stage.

However, some political analysts suggest that the political dynamics in the region are shifting. The by-election is seen as a test of whether party loyalty will continue to be the primary driver for voters or if candidate merit and local issues will play a more significant role. A lower-than-expected margin of victory for ODM or an upset by an independent or smaller party candidate would be interpreted as a significant shift in the Nyanza political landscape.

The Ugunja poll is one of several by-elections happening concurrently across the country, including contests in Magarini, Malava, and Kasipul constituencies, which are collectively viewed as a litmus test for the 2027 general election. The outcomes will provide a crucial reading of the public mood and the relative strengths of President Ruto's administration and the newly configured opposition forces.

As the campaign period concluded on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, candidates made their final appeals to voters. The focus now shifts to the IEBC to deliver a seamless election and to the voters of Ugunja, whose decision on Thursday will resonate far beyond the constituency's borders.