Diplomatic Tensions and Military Cooperation

A high-level delegation from the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) completed a visit to Nairobi on Thursday, 13th November 2025, for a mission the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) described as a routine “benchmarking exercise” on military welfare programmes. The visit’s timing, however, has drawn significant public attention and scrutiny across East Africa, coming just days after Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni warned of potential future wars over sea access for landlocked nations.

The UPDF delegation, led by Deputy Commander of Land Forces, Major General Francis Takirwa, was hosted by the KDF’s Defence Forces Welfare Services (DEFWES) at Moi Air Base in Eastleigh, Nairobi. According to an official statement from the KDF dated Wednesday, 12th November 2025, the discussions focused on strengthening bilateral cooperation and sharing knowledge on housing, healthcare, education, and post-service support for military personnel. The Ugandan officials met with DEFWES Managing Director, Brigadier Peter Limo, and later paid a courtesy call on the Commander of the Kenya Air Force, Major General Bernard Waliaula. The tour also included a visit to the DEFWES warehouse and mall in Embakasi to observe its operational structure.

Museveni’s Provocative Remarks

The context for the heightened public interest was set on Sunday, 9th November 2025, when President Museveni, speaking during a radio interview at Mbale State Lodge, made pointed remarks about the Indian Ocean. He argued that landlocked nations like Uganda are entitled to the sea for both economic and strategic defence purposes, describing any exclusive ownership by coastal states as “madness.” “That is why we have had endless discussions with Kenya... But that ocean belongs to me. Because it is my ocean. I am entitled to that ocean. In the future, we are going to have wars,” Museveni stated. He lamented that Uganda's geography has hampered its ability to develop a naval force and has created economic disadvantages.

Kenya’s Measured Response

The Kenyan government has officially responded with a call for de-escalation. On Wednesday, 12th November 2025, during a media briefing, Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Dr. Korir Sing’Oei stated that President Museveni's comments were likely “metaphorical” and should not be interpreted as a literal threat. “I believe very much that he has a fairly great understanding with respect to the nature of our territory and the nature of our rights with respect to our natural resources,” Sing’Oei remarked, reaffirming Kenya’s commitment to international law and peaceful diplomacy. Prime Cabinet Secretary and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Musalia Mudavadi, also assured that Kenya respects and adheres to international conventions regarding the rights of landlocked countries to access the sea.

Regional Implications and Public Reaction

Despite the official purpose of the UPDF visit being welfare-focused, its timing has fueled speculation among the Kenyan public, with many on social media suggesting the mission could be for intelligence gathering or reconnaissance. The episode highlights the delicate balance of regional diplomacy. Uganda is a critical trade partner for Kenya and heavily relies on the Port of Mombasa for its imports and exports. The two nations have a long history of military cooperation, including a Joint Defence Committee that met as recently as January 2025 to discuss shared security challenges like terrorism and cross-border crime. Furthermore, in July 2025, the two countries signed eight new memoranda of understanding to deepen cooperation in sectors ranging from transport and agriculture to investment promotion.

President Museveni’s statements come at a time of broader regional discussions about sea access, notably Ethiopia's similar ambitions, which have created tensions with Somalia. While Nairobi has officially downplayed the rhetoric, the juxtaposition of a military visit against a backdrop of war threats has placed the long-standing Kenya-Uganda relationship under a microscope, underscoring the strategic importance of the Northern Corridor and the deep economic interdependence that binds the two East African neighbours. Further investigation into the private diplomatic exchanges between the two states is required to fully ascertain the long-term impact of these events.