A ghost hangs over the streets of Tehran, and its name is Caracas. As anti-government protests rage across Iran, both the regime and the demonstrators are looking at Venezuela—where a US military operation recently toppled the government—as a possible crystal ball for their own future.

President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on Iran ("We will not let them kill their own people") is virtually identical to the language he used days before the Venezuela intervention. This has created a psychological pressure cooker. For the protesters, it offers hope that the US cavalry is actually coming. For the regime, it creates an existential paranoia.

The "Domino Theory" 2.0

Analysts argue that Trump is operating on a new "Domino Theory." Having successfully (in his view) reset the board in South America, he sees Iran as the next piece. "The Venezuela operation broke the taboo of regime change," says a geopolitical risk consultant. "The cost of intervention was lower than expected, and that has emboldened the hawks in the White House."

• The Economic Trigger: Just as in Venezuela, the Iranian unrest is fueled by hyperinflation and the collapse of the currency. Trump’s strategy appears to be: squeeze the economy until it breaks, then support the uprising.
• The Risks: Iran is not Venezuela. It has a formidable military, proxy militias across the region, and a capacity for asymmetric warfare that Maduro lacked. A US intervention in Iran would not be a surgical raid; it would be a regional war.
• The Message: By explicitly linking the two crises, Trump is signaling to Tehran that sovereignty is no longer a shield against US action. The question now hanging over the country is: Is Iran the next target of an emboldened US President?

As the death toll mounts, the shadow of American power looms larger than ever. For the first time in decades, the regime in Tehran looks not just hated, but vulnerable.