It was never supposed to happen this fast. For years, Paul Ongili—better known as Babu Owino—was the opposition’s attack dog, a firebrand designated for street battles and parliamentary shouting matches, not the presidency. But the tectonic plates of Kenyan politics shifted violently on October 15 with the passing of Raila Odinga, and in the vacuum left by the enigma, Babu has not just stepped up; he has kicked the door down.

A bombshell Infotrak survey released this week has forced the country’s political elite to confront an uncomfortable reality: the former student leader is now a national heavyweight. Polling at 7 percent for the presidency—ahead of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (5 percent) and nipping at the heels of seasoned veterans like Kalonzo Musyoka (12 percent)—Babu has transcended his constituency boundaries. He is no longer just an Embakasi East MP; he is a phenomenon.

The Numbers That Shocked the System

The data paints a picture of a fractured electorate searching for a new messiah. While President William Ruto leads the pack with 28 percent, his inability to cross the 30 percent threshold three years into his term signals deep voter apathy. Into this gap steps Babu, whose 7 percent slice represents a demographic often ignored: the angry, the young, and the urban poor.

More telling is the battle for the heart of Nyanza. The poll ranks Babu as the preferred successor to Raila Odinga with 33 percent support, dwarfing the newly installed ODM Party Leader Oburu Odinga, who trails at a distant 10 percent. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga follows at 7 percent.

• Presidential Preference: Ruto (28%), Matiang’i (13%), Kalonzo (12%), Babu (7%).
• Luo Kingpin Preference: Babu (33%), Oburu (10%), Wanga (7%), Orengo (4%).
• The Undecided Factor: A massive 37% of Nyanza voters remain unsure, a swing vote that will decide the region's future.

“It’s God’s plan,” Babu told Streamline News when reached for comment, a brief response that belies the calculated ambition of a man who has been running for the top seat since his days at the University of Nairobi.

The Nairobi Governor Dilemma

While the presidency is the ultimate prize, the immediate battleground is Nairobi. Babu has made no secret of his intent to unseat Governor Johnson Sakaja in 2027. This ambition puts him on a collision course not just with the incumbent, but with his own party hierarchy.

In November, tensions flared when Babu was initially sidelined during the ODM National Governing Council meeting in Mombasa. It took the intervention of Secretary General Edwin Sifuna to get him to the podium. Although Oburu Odinga has since publicly assured Babu of the party ticket “if he wins the nominations,” trust remains thin. The fear within Orange House is palpable: deny Babu the ticket, and he runs as an independent, potentially handing the city back to the ruling coalition.

For the average Nairobi resident, this political theater has real-world stakes. The city is creaking under the weight of uncollected garbage, water rationing, and a cost of living crisis that has seen the price of unga stabilize at a painful KES 210. Babu’s populist rhetoric promises a revolution in service delivery, but critics question whether his administrative acumen matches his oratory skills.

A New Brand of Politics?

Analysts warn that dismissing Babu as a mere rabble-rouser is a dangerous miscalculation. “He represents a generational rupture,” notes political risk analyst Herman Manyora. “The youth do not care about his controversies or his past. They see a man who speaks their language of defiance against a system that has failed them.”

However, the road ahead is mined with challenges. His 7 percent national support is impressive for an MP but insufficient for a serious presidential run. To grow, he must build alliances beyond his Nyanza and Nairobi bases—a tall order for a politician whose brand is built on polarization.

As 2027 approaches, the “Babu Factor” will likely force a realignment of the opposition. Will he play the loyal soldier and back a compromise candidate like Fred Matiang’i, or will he burn the house down to build his own kingdom? For now, he holds the detonator.