The Domino Theory is back in the Caribbean. Having toppled the Maduro regime in Venezuela, President Donald Trump has turned his sights on Havana. In a blistering post on Truth Social, Trump announced a total blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, warning the communist island to "make a deal" or face collapse.

"THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!" Trump wrote. shipping data confirms that since the US operation in Caracas, no tankers have left for Cuba. For an island that relies on Venezuela for 60% of its energy, this is a death sentence for the grid.

The "deal"

Trump did not specify the terms, but his intent is clear: abandon the Bolivarian alliance and expel Chinese/Russian intelligence assets, or starve. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a fierce critic of the Castro legacy, is reportedly drafting terms for a "transition" government in Havana.

• Havana Defiant: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejected the threat. "We do not negotiate under duress," he tweeted. "We are ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood." However, reports from the island suggest panic buying of food and fuel has already begun.
• The Strategic Squeeze: Without Venezuelan subsidies, Cuba’s economy—already battered by sanctions—will implode. Trump is betting that the resulting blackouts and hunger will trigger a domestic uprising that the regime cannot suppress.

The End of an Era?

For 66 years, Cuba has survived US pressure. But it has never faced a US administration that controls its energy supply at the source. The capture of Caracas has removed Havana’s lifeline. The siege has begun, and the clock is ticking on the Western Hemisphere’s oldest dictatorship.