The political marriage between President William Ruto and his Deputy Rigathi Gachagua is effectively over in all but name. What started as whispers of discontent has erupted into a full-blown war for the soul of the Mt Kenya region, with both leaders deploying their foot soldiers to secure the loyalty of the decisive vote bloc.

The conflict centers on the "Kingpin" title. Gachagua, feeling sidelined by the President's "broad-based" government approach that has brought opposition figures into the fold, has retreated to his ethnic base. He is aggressively championing the "One Man, One Vote, One Shilling" revenue sharing formula—a populist stance that resonates deeply with the region's farmers and traders but antagonizes Ruto's national support base.

The "Village" vs. The State

Gachagua’s strategy is visceral and local. He spends his weekends in village churches, speaking in vernacular, warning his people that they are being "shortchanged" by the government they voted for. "We are shareholders, not flower girls," is his recurring refrain. He portrays himself as the besieged defender of the tribe, a narrative that is gaining traction as the cost of living bites.

• Ruto's Counter-Offensive: The President has refused to engage Gachagua directly. Instead, he has empowered a younger generation of Mt Kenya leaders—Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Interior CS Kithure Kindiki—to undercut the DP. Ruto’s frequent development tours in the region are designed to show that he can deliver without Gachagua's intermediation.
• The Risk of Rebellion: The infighting risks fracturing the UDA party. A divided Mountain is vulnerable. With the 2027 clock ticking, Ruto cannot afford to lose the region that gave him 47% of his total vote tally. Yet, he cannot afford to be held hostage by it either.

A Volatile Future

Analysts predict a messy divorce. "Gachagua is daring Ruto to fire him," observes political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi. "If he is fired, he becomes a martyr and potentially the opposition leader the Mountain has been waiting for. If he stays, he sabotages the government from within. It is a lose-lose for the President."