The courtship between the opposition and the Mt Kenya region has hit a snag. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has publicly warned Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka not to bank on an automatic transfer of the "Mountain" vote in 2027, bluntly stating, "We are not a basket of potatoes to be handed over."

Gachagua’s remarks come amidst reports that Kalonzo is structuring a broad coalition, the "United Opposition," aimed at unseating President Ruto. While Gachagua has fallen out with the current administration, his hesitation to fully endorse Kalonzo signals a complex three-way chess game for the region's loyalty.

"Kalonzo Is Not That Daft"

Speaking at a vernacular radio station, Gachagua dismissed the notion that Mt Kenya owes a political debt to anyone. "Kalonzo is a friend, and he is not daft," Gachagua said. "He knows that to climb the Mountain, you must speak its language—which is resources, equity, and respect. You do not just show up and expect a harvest."

• The Historical Context: The relationship between the Kamba and Kikuyu voting blocs has historically been fraught with suspicion. Gachagua’s comments are seen as a reminder of the 2007 and 2013 elections, where alliances shifted rapidly.
• The Strategy: Analysts believe Gachagua is positioning himself as the inevitable kingmaker. By withholding immediate support for Kalonzo, he drives up his own bargaining power, ensuring that any coalition deal centers on his "One Man, One Shilling" agenda.

A Fragmented Opposition?

The friction suggests that the anti-Ruto front is far from united. With ODM’s Raila Odinga eyeing the AU Commission chairmanship, the vacuum in opposition leadership has triggered a scramble. Gachagua seems determined to ensure that if the Mountain moves, it moves on his terms alone.