NAIROBI, Kenya - Widespread atrocities, including mass killings and summary executions, have engulfed the Sudanese city of el-Fasher following its capture by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on October 26, 2025, according to multiple international observers and witness testimonies. The events have prompted the International Criminal Court (ICC) to launch an immediate investigation into potential war crimes and crimes against humanity. The fall of the city, the last stronghold of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the Darfur region, marks a grim turning point in the country's devastating civil war and poses a significant threat to regional stability, with direct implications for Kenya.

Disturbing video footage, reportedly filmed by RSF fighters themselves, has circulated online showing combatants celebrating amidst scenes of carnage. Witnesses who escaped the city describe house-to-house searches, ethnically targeted violence, and the systematic killing of unarmed civilians. The World Health Organization (WHO) condemned the reported killing of more than 460 patients and their companions at the Saudi Maternity Hospital on October 28. The Sudan Doctors Network stated RSF fighters "cold-bloodedly killed everyone they found inside." Estimates of the total death toll since the city's fall vary, with some humanitarian groups reporting over 2,000 civilians executed.

In a statement released on Monday, November 3, 2025, the ICC's Office of the Prosecutor announced it was taking "immediate steps" to collect and preserve evidence of the alleged crimes in el-Fasher. The office noted the reports of "mass killings, rapes, and other crimes" are part of a broader pattern of violence in Darfur since the war began and "may constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity."

A Decades-Long Conflict Reignited

The battle for el-Fasher is a pivotal moment in the civil war that erupted on April 15, 2023, between the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. The conflict stems from a power struggle following the 2021 military coup and has led to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Various estimates suggest the war has killed more than 150,000 people and displaced over 11 million from their homes. The RSF, which evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militia responsible for the genocide in Darfur in the early 2000s, now controls the entirety of the vast western region.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The RSF's consolidation of power in Darfur and the escalating humanitarian catastrophe present a direct threat to Kenya and the broader East African region. The primary concerns are a massive influx of refugees, heightened regional insecurity, and the failure of diplomatic interventions.

Humanitarian Crisis: The violence is expected to trigger a new surge of displacement. Over 3.5 million Sudanese have already fled to neighbouring countries, including Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, overwhelming already strained resources. Further instability could push hundreds of thousands more towards Kenya, which already hosts a significant refugee population, including many from previous conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan. As of June 2025, UNHCR data showed a rising number of asylum seekers in Kenya, a trend this new crisis will undoubtedly accelerate.

Regional Instability: The conflict has crippled Sudan's economy and is fostering a dangerous war economy based on smuggling and illicit trade that affects the entire region. The flow of weapons and fighters across porous borders threatens to destabilize fragile neighbouring states like South Sudan and Chad. For Kenya, a stable Sudan is a crucial partner for regional trade and security; its fragmentation poses a long-term strategic risk.

Diplomatic Setbacks: Kenya has played a central, albeit challenging, role in regional peace efforts through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). In mid-2023, President William Ruto was appointed to lead an IGAD quartet to mediate the crisis. However, these efforts were hampered by accusations from the SAF leadership that Kenya favored the RSF, ultimately leading to the dissolution of the Kenyan-led committee in May 2025. The fall of el-Fasher underscores the failure of these diplomatic tracks to halt the violence, leaving regional bodies with few viable options and diminishing Kenya's influence over the conflict's trajectory.

As international attention focuses on the ICC's investigation, the grim reality on the ground is a deepening humanitarian disaster with the potential to engulf the Horn of Africa in wider conflict. The international community and regional powers, including Kenya, face an urgent challenge to prevent further atrocities and manage the severe cross-border fallout from Sudan's collapse.