The political tectonic plates of Western Kenya have shifted violently with a single declaration. Ayub Savula, the combative Deputy Governor of Kakamega, has officially defected to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), launching a direct offensive against his boss, Governor Fernandes Barasa, and signaling a brutal battle for the county’s top seat in 2027.

This is not merely a change of party jersey; it is a calculated insurrection. By abandoning the Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K) and aligning himself with President William Ruto’s ruling machinery, Savula has effectively declared war on the Azimio coalition’s stronghold in the region. His statement was unequivocal and dripping with ambition: the opposition, he claims, has "nothing to offer," and the path to power runs through the government, not against it.

The Battle for the Mulembe Nation

Savula’s move is a masterstroke of political survival and opportunism. For years, Western Kenya has been a swing region, but Savula’s bet is that the Luhya community can only secure its interests by being at the dinner table rather than outside the gate. "I don't see anyone who can wrestle President Ruto from power," he asserted, dismissing the opposition’s chances in 2027 as a futile exercise.

The implications for Governor Fernandes Barasa are dire. He now faces an adversary who sits in the office next door, armed with the resources and backing of the national government. This internal sabotage will likely paralyze the county executive, turning every cabinet meeting into a proxy war for the 2027 gubernatorial race.

• The UDA Strategy: Savula has been tasked with a critical role: to dismantle the ODM and DAP-K networks in Kakamega. Working alongside Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, he is the new face of UDA’s aggressive grassroots mobilization in the region.
• The "Tawe" Factor: Savula’s defection also serves to checkmate the rising influence of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and his "Tawe" movement. By consolidating the pro-government forces, UDA aims to suffocate any emerging regional kingpins who refuse to toe the line.
• A House Divided: The betrayal of DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa is personal. Savula, once a loyal lieutenant, has now publicly ridiculed Wamalwa’s political weight, exposing the deep fractures within the Luhya leadership that have historically cost them the presidency.

The Road to 2027

As the political drums begin to beat, the residents of Kakamega are bracing for a chaotic three years. Savula’s defection is the opening salvo in a campaign that promises to be dirty, expensive, and divisive. The question is no longer if UDA can penetrate Western Kenya, but how much of the opposition’s house Ayub Savula will burn down on his way to the governor’s mansion.

For Barasa, the enemy is no longer at the gates; he is inside the fortress. And for the voters, the choice will soon be between the continuity of the status quo and the disruptive, government-backed ambition of a man who has decided that loyalty is a currency best spent on the winner.