A political storm is gathering over Kenya's 2027 election landscape as the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) escalates its demands within the ruling coalition, now insisting on the Deputy President position to guarantee its support for President William Ruto.

This bold maneuver shifts the political ground, transforming a working arrangement into a high-stakes negotiation for power. The party, now led by interim leader Dr. Oburu Oginga following the death of his brother Raila Odinga, is leveraging its significant voter base as a non-negotiable asset in the run-up to the next general election. The core message is clear: ODM's support will not be gifted, it must be earned with a significant share of executive power.

The Price of Loyalty

Senior ODM figures have made it clear that their backing is conditional. National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed has been particularly vocal, rejecting any notion of unconditional support. "If they want our ODM votes, they should put positions on the table and tell us the number of positions they are giving us," Mohamed declared during a recent public appearance. This sentiment echoes calls from other party stalwarts, including Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga, who has demanded a greater stake in the next government beyond the current cabinet appointments.

The demands from ODM are rooted in a belief that their political influence and national reach justify a larger slice of the government pie. While acknowledging that President Ruto has appointed ODM members to cabinet posts and initiated development projects in their strongholds, leaders like Mohamed argue these gestures are insufficient. The party is also pushing for the full implementation of a 10-point agenda agreed upon with President Ruto's UDA party.

A Divided House?

However, the push for top positions reveals different strategic calculations within the party. While some leaders are issuing ultimatums, others, like Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, have advocated for unconditional support for President Ruto's re-election. Wandayi has framed this support as a fulfillment of the late Raila Odinga's wish to unite the nation through the broad-based government. This has exposed potential fissures within ODM, with acting leader Oburu Oginga and Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna maintaining that any support is conditional and not guaranteed.

President Ruto, for his part, has encouraged ODM to remain a strong, united party, suggesting a powerful ODM is a better partner in a potential 2027 coalition. This places the President in a delicate balancing act. Acceding to ODM's demand for the deputy presidency would likely alienate his current deputy, Prof. Kithure Kindiki, and his support base in the Mt. Kenya region. Yet, refusing could mean losing the critical support of ODM's formidable voting bloc.

What This Means for the Kenyan Voter

For the average Kenyan, this high-level political chess game can feel distant from the daily struggle for livelihood. The negotiations are less about policy and more about power distribution. The critical questions are:

• Will a potential Ruto-ODM alliance bring political stability that fosters economic growth?
• How will the distribution of top jobs impact resource allocation and development priorities across the country?
• Does this focus on positions address the urgent issues of cost of living, unemployment, and healthcare that affect every household?

As the 2027 election cycle draws nearer, the unfolding negotiations will test loyalties and reshape alliances. The outcome will determine not just the political careers of a few, but the direction of the nation for the next five years. The ultimate question remains whether this scramble for power will translate into tangible benefits for the Kenyan people or simply serve the interests of the political elite.