The center can no longer hold. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is splitting at the seams, with two distinct factions emerging from the rubble of the "Broad-Based Government" deal. In a bold declaration of independence, the wing led by Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has vowed to field a presidential candidate in 2027.

This declaration puts them on a direct collision course with the "Old Guard" led by Oburu Oginga, who have seemingly pledged their loyalty—and the party’s machinery—to President William Ruto’s reelection bid. The conflict is no longer a whisper; it is a scream.

The "Young Turks" Rebellion

Sifuna, flanked by youthful MPs including Babu Owino and Caleb Amisi, addressed a charged rally in Nairobi. Their message was clear: ODM was founded to seek power, not to assist it. "We did not build this party to become a wheelbarrow’s spare tyre," Sifuna declared.

• The Ultimatum: The faction is demanding an immediate National Governing Council (NGC) meeting to clarify the party’s stance. They threaten to form a splinter movement if the "cohabitation" with Kenya Kwanza continues.
• The Oburu Factor: The rebellion is a direct challenge to the Odinga family’s traditional grip on the party. Oburu’s camp argues that stability and development take precedence over "perpetual opposition."
• The Stakes: If Sifuna’s group follows through, it could fracture the opposition vote, potentially handing Ruto an easy victory—or creating a formidable third force.

Identity Crisis

ODM is suffering from an identity crisis. Is it the government-in-waiting or the government-in-partnership? For the millions of supporters who have bled for the Orange flag, the confusion is palpable. As 2027 approaches, the Orange is not just peeling; it is rotting from the inside.