A sharp warning has been fired at Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka over his new political alignment with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, with analyst Mutahi Ngunyi calling the move a high-stakes political miscalculation.

This criticism cuts to the heart of the shifting alliances shaping the 2027 presidential race. The core question is whether this new pact is a masterstroke to consolidate votes or a perilous strategy that could alienate a national audience and ultimately undermine Kalonzo's State House ambitions.

A Pact Built on Risky Ground

In a scathing critique on Monday, Ngunyi accused Gachagua of pursuing a divisive, ethnic-based strategy focused on consolidating power for the Mt. Kenya region. The analyst claimed Gachagua's ambitions included securing a disproportionate share of elective seats and government positions for his community, a move Ngunyi warned could be politically toxic. “Gachagua wants 16 out of the 17 seats in Nairobi for Kikuyus. Then he wants 50% of the government for Kikuyus,” Ngunyi stated, questioning Kalonzo's judgment in aligning with such a figure.

Ngunyi's concerns follow concrete moves by the two leaders. Gachagua recently announced a strategic deal with Kalonzo for the 2027 Nairobi elections. Under the agreement, Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) would field joint candidates for the capital's top three seats: Governor, Senator, and Woman Representative.

The 2027 Chessboard

This alliance is a clear signal of the political realignments triggered by Gachagua's dramatic fallout with the Kenya Kwanza administration. Having been ousted from the Deputy Presidency, Gachagua has focused his energy on unifying his Mt. Kenya backyard, a region he insists must chart its own political path. His partnership with Kalonzo is seen as a crucial step in building a formidable opposition force to challenge President William Ruto.

For his part, Kalonzo has made his presidential ambitions for 2027 unequivocally clear, confirming he will be on the ballot. This alliance offers him a potential pathway to the historically crucial Mt. Kenya voting bloc, a prize that could significantly boost his chances. Leaders from both camps have confirmed that talks are aimed at building a 'strong coalition' ahead of the polls.

While the pact offers a tantalizing prospect of uniting the Kamba and Mt. Kenya voting blocs, Ngunyi's warning hangs heavy. The challenge for Kalonzo and Gachagua will be to frame their coalition as a national movement for all Kenyans, rather than a narrow pact between two regional kingpins. How they navigate this perception will likely determine their political fate.