Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i has thrown his weight behind Democratic Action Party (DAP-K) candidate Seth Panyako for the Malava constituency by-election scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025. Speaking during a United Opposition campaign rally in Malava on Friday, November 21, 2025, Matiang’i revealed he had commissioned a team of experts to analyze the race, stating their findings pointed to a decisive victory for Panyako.

“Before I came here, I sent some experts to come and investigate here in Malava and asked them to tell me who will win... and they told me it would be Seth Panyako,” Matiang’i announced to the crowd, framing his endorsement as a data-driven decision. This move marks a significant moment in the increasingly heated contest, positioning the by-election as a key battleground between the ruling UDA party and the newly invigorated opposition coalition.

The Malava seat fell vacant following the death of Member of Parliament Malulu Injendi in February 2025. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) subsequently scheduled the by-election for November 27, with the official campaign period running from October 8 to November 24, 2025.

A Litmus Test for 2027

The by-election is widely seen as a litmus test for the political alignments shaping up ahead of the 2027 general election. Panyako, the Secretary-General of the Kenya National Union of Nurses (KNUN), is running on the DAP-K ticket, a key party within the United Opposition. His main challenger is David Ndakwa of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), who is backed by the full weight of the government machinery, with President William Ruto's aide, Farouk Kibet, and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi leading the campaigns.

Matiang'i's appearance alongside other opposition heavyweights, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, underscores the coalition's strategy to present a united front in Western Kenya. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, now a principal in the opposition, also endorsed Panyako via a phone call during the rally, urging residents to consolidate their support. This unity was further solidified when the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate, Edgar Busiega, withdrew from the race in late October to support Panyako, a move aimed at preventing a split in the opposition vote.

The Candidates and Campaigns

Seth Panyako, a prominent trade unionist, has positioned himself as a champion for workers' rights. His campaign has gained significant momentum, with recent polling data suggesting he has a lead over his UDA rival. A Mizani Africa survey conducted between November 13 and 15 showed Panyako with a popularity rating of 47.2% against Ndakwa's 40.3%. However, his candidacy was not without challenges, having faced a petition questioning his eligibility over the timing of his resignation from the Local Authorities Provident Fund (LAPFUND) board. The IEBC ultimately cleared him to run on October 8, 2025.

David Ndakwa's campaign has focused on leveraging his connection to the ruling party to promise development for the constituency. The UDA camp has framed the election as an opportunity for Malava to align with the national government, with numerous high-profile government officials campaigning actively in the region.

Matiang'i's Political Resurgence

This endorsement is a key part of Fred Matiang'i's calculated return to the political frontline. After joining the Jubilee Party and being named its Deputy Party Leader and endorsed presidential candidate in October 2025, he has taken a central role in the United Opposition's strategy. His involvement in the Malava race is seen as an effort to solidify his credentials as a national leader and a key power broker within the opposition coalition as he builds his platform for a 2027 presidential run. The campaign trail has been intense, with reports of police attempting to disrupt opposition rallies on Friday, November 21, before being repelled by supporters.

As the November 27 polling day approaches, the Malava by-election has transcended local issues, becoming a crucial indicator of political strength and a preview of the broader national contest to come.