The political ceasefire that defined Kenya’s “broad-based” government has effectively collapsed. Less than two weeks after the November 27 by-elections—where the ruling coalition and its partners secured 16 out of 24 seats—the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has torn up the script, declaring it will field candidates in every corner of the country in 2027, including in the strongholds of its current partner, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

This declaration marks the definitive end of the “honeymoon” phase between President William Ruto and the opposition-turned-ally ODM. While the two parties united to stabilize the government earlier this year, the gloves are now off. UDA Secretary-General Hassan Omar has drawn a line in the sand, asserting that the party will not entertain “zoning” arrangements—a strategy that would have reserved specific regions for ODM candidates to avoid friendly fire.

The Numbers Game: A Blue and Orange Map

The November mini-polls offered a stark preview of the looming 2027 battle. The results painted a picture of a nation in flux, with UDA consolidating power while new insurgencies rise.

• UDA Dominance: The President’s party clinched 12 seats directly, including the Baringo Senate seat won by Kiprono Chemetei (55,246 votes) and the Malava parliamentary seat taken by Ndakwa David Amutallah.
• ODM’s Defense: The Orange party successfully defended its turf, winning three parliamentary seats: Ugunja (Omondi Moses Okoth), Kasipul (Ongondo Boyd Were), and Magarini (Harrison Kombe).
• The Gachagua Factor: The newly formed Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), led by impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, made a noisy debut, securing three ward seats and proving that the “Mountain” is far from pacified.

“We have identified candidates to be given direct tickets as they are strong in the party,” Mr. Omar noted, signaling that UDA’s grassroots elections scheduled for January 10, 2026, will be used to build a war chest for a total takeover. The message to ODM is clear: enjoy the cabinet slots, but don’t expect a free pass at the ballot box.

The New ODM Era

For ODM, the landscape has shifted seismically. With Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga now steering the ship as Party Leader, the outfit faces an existential dilemma: how to remain a distinct, fighting force while its senior members sit in President Ruto’s Cabinet.

Dr. Oginga has been quick to dispel any notions of a merger. “Our party must remain strong. ODM is a national party, not for any particular area,” he emphasized during a victory reception for the party’s by-election winners. His stance reflects a growing anxiety within the rank and file that the “broad-based” deal could swallow the party whole, leaving it toothless by 2027.

The tension is palpable in the Coast region, a traditional ODM bastion. Former Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa’s defection from UDA to the Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) has further fractured the playing field, signaling that regional kingpins are already hedging their bets against the two main giants.

The Rise of the 'United Opposition'

While UDA and ODM bicker over the terms of their marriage, a third force is coalescing. The “United Opposition,” bringing together Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa, is positioning itself as the only true alternative to the status quo.

Kalonzo’s Wiper party scored a significant victory in the Mumbi North ward by-election in Machakos, reinforcing his command over the Lower Eastern bloc. Meanwhile, Gachagua’s DCP is aggressively courting the disaffected Mt. Kenya vote, framing the current administration as a betrayal of the region’s interests.

“If we don't work hard to make our party strong, we will be taken for granted,” Dr. Oginga warned his troops. It is a sentiment that rings true across the political divide. As 2025 draws to a close, the board is set. The “broad-based” government may still stand on paper, but on the ground, the campaign for 2027 has begun in earnest—and it promises to be a bruising, three-horse race.