Malawi’s Ex-President Mutharika Surges Ahead in Vote Count

Blantyre, Malawi — September 22, 2025, 23:15 CAT.

Former President Peter Mutharika is leading Malawi’s presidential race by a wide margin, according to provisional vote tallies released by the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) from two-thirds of the country’s 36 electoral councils. Incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera is trailing significantly. While it looks increasingly likely Mutharika may avoid a second round, the MEC is still verifying results and has not declared a winner.

The Latest

• As of the latest release, Mutharika has secured about 66-68% of votes tallied thus far (from 24 out of 36 councils). Chakwera is on approximately 20-24%. 

• One private broadcaster (Times Television) projects that Mutharika has already surpassed the 50% thresholdrequired to win outright, though this is not yet official. 

• The MEC has until September 24, 2025 to officially announce the full provisional results. The commission says it is meticulously checking tally sheets, in part because previous elections in Malawi have had controversies over results (notably 2019). 

Context in Brief

• The election was held on September 16, with 17 candidates contesting. The main contenders are former President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP). 

• This is the fourth time Mutharika and Chakwera face off. In 2019, the election result was annulled by Malawi’s Constitutional Court owing to irregularities; Chakwera won the rerun in 2020. 

• The campaign has been held amid severe economic challenges: high inflation (above 20-27%), food and fuel shortages, and widespread dissatisfaction over living costs. These issues have heavily influenced voter sentiment. 

Law, Policy, and Process

• According to Malawian electoral law, a presidential candidate must receive more than 50% of valid votes to win outright in the first round. If no candidate clears this threshold, a second round (runoff) is triggered. 

• The MEC is required to verify all tally sheets before declaring official results to ensure transparency, in light of past elections marred by disputes. 

• Political parties and observers have been advised to refrain from declaring victory prematurely and allow the process to conclude formally. 

Voices & Stakeholders

• Peter Mutharika (DPP): While no formal victory has been declared, his campaign is buoyed by the lead. Supporters are increasingly optimistic.

• Lazarus Chakwera (MCP): Though trailing, his team has expressed hope that remaining districts (some with large voter populations) could swing his numbers upward enough to force a second round.

• Malawi Electoral Commission: Reiterated its commitment to accuracy and verification before any final declaration.

• Political analysts: Many believe the large lead is indicative of a possible first-round win for Mutharika, but caution remains until all votes and tallies are confirmed.

Evidence & Data Box

Risks and Implications

• If Mutharika is declared winner without a second round, it could lead to legal challenges by the opposition, especially given Malawi’s recent history around disputed elections.

• There is potential for unrest if supporters of Chakwera believe tallying or verification is unfairly handled or transparency compromised.

• International observers are likely to press MEC to produce full data, including from all districts, to ensure legitimacy and reduce the risk of dispute.

• A strong win could shift political power and policy direction significantly, especially around economic reform, anti-corruption, and infrastructure promises from Mutharika.

What We Don’t Know Yet

• The full breakdown in remaining districts: which councils that have not yet reported could swing the total and potentially force a runoff.

• Whether there are any irregularities or disputes being raised in those outstanding councils.

• Precise turnout data and how urban vs rural voting patterns are impacting the totals.

• What Chakwera’s campaign will do in terms of legal or public contestation if he does not force a second round.

Timeline

• September 16, 2025: Presidential election held. 

• September 19-21, 2025: Initial results trickle in; various districts announce preliminary tallies. 

• September 22, 2025: With ~24 councils reporting, provisional tallies show Mutharika ahead with ~66-68%. 

• By September 24, 2025: MEC’s deadline to release full provisional results. 

What to Watch

• MEC’s update from remaining districts, especially high-population centers (e.g. Lilongwe, Dedza).

• Any official statements from the MCP regarding acceptance of results or demands for recounts.

• Reaction from international observers and foreign governments on the conduct and credibility of the vote and counting process.

• Whether Mutharika will formally be declared winner in the first round or if a runoff is necessitated.

Editor’s Note: All numbers and quotes are provisional, based on what has been reported from partial tallies. They may change as more districts report and as verification proceeds.

Correction / Updates: Will update when MEC publishes final provisional and official results.