The ink had barely dried on a high-profile peace accord before the thunder of artillery returned to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, with rebel forces reportedly breaching the strategic city of Uvira on Wednesday.

This offensive marks a brazen defiance of the ceasefire brokered just last week by U.S. President Donald Trump, casting a long shadow over regional stability and sending thousands of refugees fleeing toward a now-closed Burundi border.

Conflicting Narratives in the Fog of War

The situation on the ground in Uvira remains fluid and perilous. While the M23 rebel group has declared it has “liberated” the city, official government sources paint a different picture. South Kivu Governor Jean-Jacques Purusi insisted to local media that the Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militias maintain control of the urban center.

However, reports from the ground suggest the government's grip is slipping. UN-backed Radio Okapi cited residents who witnessed rebel fighters patrolling major thoroughfares. One resident, speaking to the BBC, described a column of M23 fighters marching in from the northeast without facing significant resistance.

For Kenyans watching the region, the rapid deterioration of security in the DRC is a familiar warning sign. Instability in the Congo often ripples outward, affecting trade routes and regional security protocols within the East African Community (EAC).

A Regional Crisis at the Doorstep

The fall of Uvira would be a significant tactical blow to Kinshasa. Located just 27km (17 miles) from Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, the city is a vital economic hub on Lake Tanganyika. The violence has triggered immediate consequences for the civilian population:

• Mass Displacement: Thousands of terrified residents have packed their belongings, attempting to cross into Burundi.
• Border Closure: Citing security concerns, Burundi has reportedly shut its border with the DRC, leaving refugees stranded in a conflict zone.
• Humanitarian Toll: With supply lines threatened, the cost of basic goods in the area is expected to spike, further straining vulnerable families.

Diplomacy Under Fire

The timing of this offensive is particularly damaging to international diplomatic efforts. The peace deal, intended to de-escalate tensions between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, was touted as a major foreign policy win for the Trump administration.

Analysts suggest that if the M23 can take and hold Uvira despite the accord, it signals that the rebels—and their alleged backers—are willing to gamble on military gains over diplomatic promises. As the dust settles over Lake Tanganyika, the question remains: can the international community enforce a peace that is already being dismantled by the barrel of a gun?