The Enduring Legacy of the White Highlands

The term "White Highlands" refers to a fertile expanse of nearly 20% of Kenya's arable land that was reserved for European settlers by the British colonial administration between 1902 and 1961. [3, 5, 6] This policy, initiated under legal frameworks like the 1902 Crown Lands Ordinance, systematically displaced indigenous communities, particularly the Kikuyu, Maasai, and Kalenjin, creating a racialized economy that privileged European farming. [3, 5] Following independence in 1963, settlement schemes were introduced to transfer land to African farmers, but these programs were often flawed, favouring the politically connected and failing to fully resolve the deep-seated issue of landlessness. [3, 5] Today, the ghost of this colonial project persists, with land ownership in these prime agricultural zones remaining a flashpoint for political tension and economic disparity. [3] The National Land Commission (NLC) is currently investigating over 1,000 cases of historical land injustices across the country, many of which are rooted in this colonial-era displacement. [17, 18, 25]

A Modern-Day Struggle Against Costs and Climate

Farmers in counties like Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, and Trans-Nzoia, the heartland of the former Highlands, now face a confluence of modern challenges that threaten their livelihoods and Kenya's food supply. A primary concern is the escalating cost of production. [22] According to the World Bank's October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, global fertiliser prices are projected to rise by up to 21% in 2025, a trend driven by export restrictions and geopolitical tensions. [33] This directly impacts Kenyan farmers who rely heavily on imported fertilisers. [33] Furthermore, proposed tax changes in the Finance Bill 2025, such as a 16% VAT on previously exempt agricultural inputs and increased excise duty on fuel, could further inflate operational costs. [10] While the government has allocated KSh 8.0 billion to the fertiliser subsidy program for the 2025/26 fiscal year, sustained global price hikes may limit the subsidy's effectiveness. [11, 33]

Compounding these economic pressures is the growing threat of climate change. The agricultural sector, which accounts for over 21% of Kenya's GDP and is 98% rain-fed, is extremely vulnerable to erratic weather. [23, 28, 42] Farmers report increased frequency of extreme events, including prolonged droughts, destructive hailstones, and unpredictable rainfall patterns, which disrupt planting cycles and decimate yields. [13, 22, 27] Projections indicate that by 2050, Kenya could see an average temperature increase of up to 2.5°C, further intensifying the frequency of droughts and floods. [26] These climatic shifts not only affect crop production but also livestock, with a protracted drought between 2020 and 2022 leading to the loss of at least 2.5 million cattle. [31]

Land Fragmentation and Policy Interventions

Beyond external shocks, internal pressures are also mounting. A significant challenge is land fragmentation, where agricultural land is progressively subdivided into smaller, less economically viable plots, often due to inheritance practices. [4, 7] Studies in counties like Vihiga show that a majority of farming households operate on less than one acre of land, making mechanization difficult and reducing overall productivity. [4, 20] This trend, driven by population growth, is a major concern identified in Kenya's National Land Use Policy. [7]

In response to these multifaceted challenges, the Kenyan government is pursuing several policy interventions. A draft policy framework announced in July 2025 aims to reform agricultural financing and streamline subsidy programs by registering 1.4 million farmers to ensure targeted and efficient distribution of inputs. [2, 8] This initiative intends to leverage digital systems to reduce the leakages and delays that have historically plagued subsidy delivery. [2, 9] Despite these efforts, farmers remain caught between historical grievances and a host of contemporary crises. Maize production, a national staple, saw a significant increase to 47.6 million bags in 2023 due to favourable weather and subsidies, but wheat production declined as farmers shifted crops. [12] Forecasts for 2025/26 suggest a return to normal production levels of around 4.4 million metric tons of maize, but the underlying vulnerabilities of high input costs, climate shocks, and land pressure remain unresolved. [16, 24] The struggle of farmers in Kenya's breadbasket is, therefore, a critical national issue, directly tied to the country's economic stability and food security.