Trade Data Reveals Pre-Expiry Surge

NAIROBI, KENYA – Friday, October 31, 2025 (EAT) – Kenya's exports to the United States surged to a three-year high in the first eight months of 2025, as businesses rushed to ship goods ahead of the September 30 expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) indicates that shipments to the U.S. amounted to KSh 50.87 billion between January and August 2025, the highest value for that period since 2022. This increase reflects exporters' anxieties over the lapse of the two-decade-old trade deal, which has been the bedrock of Kenya-U.S. trade relations.

AGOA's Critical Role for Kenyan Economy

First enacted in 2000, AGOA has provided duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 6,000 products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries. For Kenya, the pact has been particularly transformative for the textile and apparel sector. This industry has become a cornerstone of the nation's manufacturing base and a significant employer, especially for women. In 2024, Kenya's apparel exports to the U.S. under AGOA reached a record KSh 60.6 billion, a 19.2% increase from KSh 50.8 billion in 2023, according to the KNBS Economic Survey 2025. The number of direct jobs supported by the program grew to over 66,000 in 2024.

Uncertainty and the Push for a New Deal

The expiration of AGOA on September 30, 2025, has cast a long shadow over the future of this vital trade link. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projected that without the deal, Kenya's average weighted trade tariff with the U.S. could nearly triple, severely impacting the competitiveness of its key exports. The situation was compounded by the Trump administration's protectionist policies, including the imposition of a baseline 10% tariff on all trading partners announced in April 2025, which diluted AGOA's benefits even before its expiry.

In response to the looming deadline, Kenya and the U.S. have been engaged in negotiations for a new bilateral framework, the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP). Launched in July 2022, the STIP aims to create a comprehensive agreement covering areas like agriculture, anti-corruption, and workers' rights, with both nations committing to conclude a deal by the end of 2025. As the expiry date neared, Kenyan officials, including President William Ruto, intensified lobbying efforts in Washington D.C., pushing for an extension to act as a bridge until the STIP is finalized. In the final days, the White House signaled support for a potential one-year extension, offering a glimmer of hope for continuity.

Economic Implications and Sector Shifts

The uncertainty has already had tangible effects. While overall exports surged in the run-up to the deadline, recent data for the first half of 2025 showed a notable shift in the composition of goods. According to a KNBS report from October, coffee exports to the U.S. surged by 83.5% to KSh 5.71 billion, overtaking apparel as the top export category for the period. In contrast, exports of cotton trousers and shorts, previously a leading category, saw a decline. This suggests that while some sectors capitalized on the final months of AGOA, the core apparel industry was already feeling the pressure of the impending changes.

Business and manufacturing associations, including the Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Kenya, have consistently advocated for a seamless transition, warning that a sudden loss of preferential access could lead to factory closures and significant job losses. The focus now shifts to the ongoing STIP negotiations and the possibility of a short-term legislative extension of AGOA by the U.S. Congress to prevent a major disruption to one of East Africa's most important trade relationships.