Kenya is accelerating its efforts to establish a nuclear power plant, with the Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA) targeting 2034 for the commissioning of the facility. This ambitious timeline is part of Kenya's long-term strategy to ensure a stable and diversified energy supply to fuel its economic development and address increasing electricity demands.

The nation's energy sector currently relies heavily on renewable sources, with geothermal, hydropower, and wind collectively contributing over 90% of total electricity generation between July 2024 and June 2025. Despite this, the Ministry of Energy estimates that power demand could increase twentyfold by 2050, necessitating additional baseload energy sources.

Site Selection and Community Resistance

The selection of a suitable site for the 1,000-megawatt (MW) plant has been a contentious issue, sparking significant debate and community resistance. Initially, Uyombo in Kilifi County, along the Indian Ocean coast, was a primary consideration.

However, residents of Kilifi, many of whom depend on fishing and tourism, have voiced strong opposition, citing fears of environmental and health impacts, including radiation risks and disruption of marine ecosystems. Environmental groups, such as the Kenya Anti-Nuclear Alliance, have also raised concerns about the project's potential to deepen Kenya's debt and the lack of clear policies for managing nuclear waste.

In response to the pushback, the government has recently shifted its focus, identifying Luanda Kotieno in Siaya County, on the shores of Lake Victoria, as a leading candidate site. An unspecified location in Turkana County, near Lake Turkana, is also under consideration. NuPEA has indicated that eight potential sites in Siaya are currently under investigation, with a commitment to robust stakeholder engagement.

Historical Context and Policy Framework

Kenya's pursuit of nuclear energy dates back to 2010 when the then Energy and Petroleum Ministry PS Patrick Nyoike announced plans for a 1,000 MW nuclear plant. The Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA), established under the Energy Act 2019, is tasked with promoting and implementing Kenya's nuclear power programme.

The National Energy Policy 2025–2034 outlines Kenya's strategic vision for the energy sector, aiming for affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy. This policy emphasizes diversifying the energy mix and transitioning to clean energy solutions, with nuclear power seen as a crucial component for long-term energy security.

Costs, Financing, and Technical Considerations

The estimated cost for the initial 1,000 MW nuclear plant has varied, with earlier projections around US$3.5 billion (approximately KSh 540 billion). More recent estimates suggest a cost of $2-3 billion for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). NuPEA plans to seek funding from various sources, including import-export banks and public-private partnerships.

Experts have highlighted the substantial financial and technical challenges associated with nuclear projects globally, often characterized by delays and cost overruns. There are also concerns about the need for significant upgrades to Kenya's power transmission infrastructure to accommodate nuclear power without causing grid instability.

Stakeholder Concerns and Unanswered Questions

Despite NuPEA's assurances of adherence to international safety standards, including those of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), skepticism persists among local communities and environmental groups. A 2024 audit by Kenya's Auditor-General reportedly revealed gaps in project planning, funding accountability, and public sensitization.

Unanswered questions remain regarding comprehensive radioactive waste management policies and the country's preparedness to handle long-term environmental and health risks associated with nuclear waste. The potential impact on vital ecosystems, such as the UNESCO-listed Watamu Marine National Park and Arabuko-Sokoke Forest in Kilifi, is also a major concern.

Timeline and Next Steps

NuPEA anticipates commencing construction of the nuclear power plant by 2027, with commissioning slated for 2034. The agency is also developing a nuclear research reactor, with construction expected to begin in 2026 and commissioning between 2030 and 2034. This research reactor, to be located at Konza Technopolis, represents an initial investment of $83 million.

Public participation and comprehensive Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs) are crucial next steps before any final site approval. Legal challenges filed by Kilifi residents in 2023, arguing against a rushed and illegal process, are still ongoing.

What to Watch

The coming months will be critical for observing the progress of site selection, particularly the detailed feasibility studies and public consultations in Siaya and Turkana counties. The government's approach to addressing the environmental and safety concerns raised by communities and environmentalists will be key. Furthermore, the finalization of financing agreements and the development of a robust regulatory framework for nuclear waste management will be crucial indicators of the project's viability and public acceptance.