Manyora: Kalonzo Could Back Ruto If Gachagua Insists on 2027 Opposition Ticket

Nairobi, Kenya — September 22, 2025, 15:30 EAT. Seasoned political analyst Herman Manyora has warned that Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka might abandon the united opposition alliance and join President William Ruto’s government if former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua insists on being the opposition’s 2027 presidential flag bearer.

The Latest

Speaking on his weekly political analysis show on Monday, September 22, 2025, Manyora said Kalonzo has long paid his political dues by backing ODM leader Raila Odinga three times in previous elections and is unlikely to cede the top seat to what he termed “political juniors.”

“The first thing that will make Kalonzo perhaps join the government is if Gachagua decides to vie or if Matiang’i does the same,” Manyora observed. “Rightfully so, he would cede ground to Raila, and it would be understandable. But who will he cede ground for? All these are junior to him.”

Manyora suggested that, should the opposition coalition fail to unite behind Kalonzo or Raila, the Wiper boss might opt to back Ruto’s re-election bid rather than settle for a secondary role in the opposition hierarchy.

Context in Brief

• Past alliances: Kalonzo supported Raila in 2013, 2017, and 2022 under the CORD, NASA, and Azimio coalitions, respectively.

• Opposition talks: The united opposition movement, comprising Wiper, ODM, DAP-K, and other parties, has been positioning itself for 2027 but has yet to settle on a flag bearer.

• Ruto factor: President Ruto has hinted at inviting disaffected opposition leaders to work with his administration ahead of the next polls.

Law, Policy, and Process

• Constitutional context: Under the Political Parties Act (2011) and Elections Act (2012), coalition agreements must be deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties before a general election.

• Timelines: Any pre-election coalition agreement must be submitted at least 90 days before the polls.

Voices and Stakeholders

• Herman Manyora, Political Analyst: “Kalonzo can’t support anybody else; rightfully so, he would cede ground to Raila, and it would be understandable. But to juniors? Highly unlikely.”

• Kalonzo Musyoka, Wiper Leader: Has yet to comment on Manyora’s remarks but has previously stated he is “ready to take a stab” at the presidency in 2027.

• Rigathi Gachagua, Former Deputy President: Recently signaled his intent to lead a united opposition but faces resistance from seasoned opposition figures.

Evidence & Data Box

• Election history: Kalonzo has served as Vice President (2008–2013) and has been a running mate thrice (2013, 2017, 2022).

• Coalition structure: Current opposition alliance talks involve at least five major parties with varying regional strongholds.

• 2027 timeline: IEBC is expected to release an election roadmap in early 2026.

Risks and Implications

• Opposition fragmentation: A split could hand Ruto an easier path to re-election in 2027.

• Government realignment: Kalonzo’s potential defection might trigger new alliances ahead of the polls.

• Policy continuity vs. disruption: A fractured opposition could weaken parliamentary oversight, impacting checks and balances.

What We Don’t Know Yet

• Will Kalonzo publicly declare his 2027 ambitions soon?

• Can the opposition unite behind a single candidate before 2026?

• Will Ruto openly court opposition leaders before the next election cycle?

Timeline

• 2013, 2017, 2022: Kalonzo backs Raila Odinga in presidential elections.

• 2025-09-22: Manyora warns of possible opposition defections if coalition unity collapses.

• 2027-08: Scheduled date for Kenya’s next general elections.

What to Watch

• Opposition coalition talks: Expected to intensify before the end of 2025.

• Ruto’s political moves: Whether he courts opposition figures ahead of 2027.

• IEBC preparations: Electoral reforms and timelines leading to the polls.

Editor’s Note: This article draws on Manyora’s interview and public records on Kenya’s coalition politics. Further updates will be provided as political negotiations evolve.