The Ugandan military has announced the impending end of its 19-year combat mission in Somalia, signaling a historic shift in the security architecture of the Horn of Africa. General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces, declared that the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) will soon completely withdraw from the war-torn nation, concluding nearly two decades of blood and sacrifice.

The announcement marks the definitive sunset of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), formerly known as AMISOM. Uganda was the first country to deploy boots on the ground in Mogadishu in 2007, at a time when the capital was a lawless ruin controlled by warlords and Al-Shabaab insurgents.

"Mission Accomplished" or Premature Exit?

"We intend to completely withdraw from that country very soon," Gen. Muhoozi stated on X (formerly Twitter). The withdrawal aligns with the UN Security Council's mandate to hand over full security responsibilities to the Somali National Army (SNA) by December 2026. However, the announcement has triggered anxiety among security analysts who fear the SNA is not yet ready to hold the line against a resilient Al-Shabaab.

Ugandan troops have been the backbone of the AU mission, securing the presidential palace, the airport, and key supply routes. Their departure creates a security vacuum that the Somali government must race to fill.

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• The Legacy: Over 19 years, thousands of Ugandan soldiers have rotated through Somalia. They are credited with driving Al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu in 2011, a turning point that allowed the current federal government to function.
• The Cost: The mission has come at a high price, with hundreds of Ugandan soldiers paying the ultimate sacrifice in battles like the Leego and Janaale base attacks.
• The Transition: ATMIS has already begun drawing down, handing over Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) to Somali forces. The "total withdrawal" signal from Kampala accelerates this timeline.

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Somalia on Its Own

The focus now shifts to the Federal Government of Somalia. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration has been ramping up offensives against Al-Shabaab, but the reliance on foreign air power and AU ground support remains high.

As the last Ugandan convoys prepare to pack up their gear, the question haunts Mogadishu: Can the centre hold when the peacekeepers are gone? For Uganda, the mission is ending; for Somalia, the true test of sovereignty is just beginning.