Auction Earnings Rise on Higher Prices

The Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) recorded a total of KSh 447.7 million in earnings from the sale of 7,147 bags of coffee during the weekly auction on Tuesday, November 4, 2025. This represents a notable increase from the KSh 411.8 million generated from 7,135 bags in the last week of October, according to official NCE reports published on Wednesday, November 5.

Analysis by Streamline News shows the average price per 50kg bag rose to approximately KSh 62,642 this week, up from about KSh 57,716 the previous week, marking an 8.5% increase. This upward trend highlights sustained demand for Kenyan coffee, particularly for premium grades which continue to attract competitive prices from international buyers.

The highest prices were achieved for top-grade AA beans, with consignments from Kiiriangoro Factory in Murang'a and Kagwanja Factory in Thika fetching a peak price of KSh 60,073 per bag. These sales were managed by Alliance Berries Limited, one of the leading brokers at the exchange. Other factories securing top prices included Orenge and Kiamara, which sold their AA-grade beans for KSh 58,393 per bag.

Market Movers and Key Players

The auction involved nine licensed brokers, with New KPCU leading in volume by selling 1,396 bags for KSh 83 million. Kipkelion Broker Company Ltd followed, trading 1,090 bags for KSh 73 million, while Alliance Berries Ltd sold 1,025 bags valued at KSh 67.2 million.

On the buying side, 18 dealers participated in the auction. Kenyacof emerged as the top buyer, acquiring 1,760 bags for KSh 116.2 million. Other major buyers included Louis Dreyfus Company, which purchased 1,483 bags, and Ibero Kenya, which took home 1,462 bags. The strong presence of major international buyers underscores the global appeal of Kenya's coffee.

Impact of Government Reforms on Farmers

The positive results at the auction come amid a series of government-led reforms aimed at revitalizing the coffee sector and boosting farmer incomes. According to the Ministry of Co-operatives and MSME Development, initiatives like the Direct Settlement System (DSS) are designed to ensure farmers receive at least 80% of their coffee's value by linking them directly to buyers. This system, implemented at the NCE, enhances transparency and reduces delays in payment.

Furthermore, the government has disbursed over KSh 9.7 billion through the Coffee Cherry Advance Revolving Fund, providing farmers with crucial financing. Proposed legislation, including the Coffee Bill 2024 and Co-operative Bill 2024, aims to further entrench good governance and accountability in the sector. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, speaking in May 2025, emphasized that these reforms are intended to eliminate cartels and ensure farmers benefit from their produce, citing that a kilo of coffee cherry fetched between KSh 110 and KSh 150 in the last season.

Global Context and Future Outlook

The strong performance at the NCE is supported by favourable global market dynamics. As of early November 2025, Arabica coffee futures have seen a significant increase, driven by supply concerns in Brazil, the world's largest producer. Reports from Somar Meteorologia on November 4 indicated that Brazil's main coffee-growing region of Minas Gerais received only 75% of its historical average rainfall in the last week of October, raising concerns about the 2026 crop. This uncertainty in global supply has pushed international prices higher, creating a favourable market for other high-quality producers like Kenya.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in a May 2025 report, forecasted a 13.3% increase in Kenya's coffee production for the 2025/26 marketing year, projecting an output of 850,000 bags. This projected growth is attributed to farmers responding to high global prices with improved agricultural practices. With both local reforms and global market trends aligning, the outlook for the Kenyan coffee sector appears robust, promising better returns for the nation's coffee farmers.