The Kenyan tea cup is about to get much more expensive. Official data from the Sugar Directorate reveals a worrying 27% dip in domestic sugar production over the last quarter, a decline attributed to a severe cane shortage and the unscheduled closure of three major millers for maintenance.

Production fell to 45,000 metric tonnes in December 2025, down from 62,000 tonnes in the previous period. The shortage has already triggered a price rally at the factory gate, with a 50kg bag of sugar now retailing at Sh7,200, up from Sh6,500 just two weeks ago. Retailers warn that the consumer price could hit Sh250 per kilo by February if imports do not bridge the gap.

"The Cane Has Run Dry"

"We are paying the price for the premature harvesting of 2024," explained Kenya National Federation of Sugarcane Farmers Secretary General Ezra Okoth. "Because of the scramble for raw material last year, millers harvested immature cane. Now, there is a vacuum in the fields. We have the factories, but we have nothing to crush."

Compounding the crisis is the closure of Mumias (under receivership management) and Nzoia Sugar for "routine maintenance," removing two critical players from the supply chain at the worst possible moment.

Market Impact

• Import Window: The government is reportedly considering opening a duty-free import window to stabilize prices, a move that typically angers local farmers who fear market flooding.
• Inflationary Pressure: Sugar is a key industrial ingredient. A price hike will have a domino effect on the cost of bread, soft drinks, and confectionery, adding to the cost-of-living burden for households.

The crisis exposes the cyclical vulnerability of Kenya’s sugar sector—a mix of poor planning, political interference, and agronomic failure. Until the new crop matures in mid-2026, Kenyans will have to dig deeper into their pockets.