GLOBAL - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is cautiously engaging with a controversial 28-point peace plan reportedly drafted by US and Russian officials and backed by former US President Donald Trump. The proposal, which emerged on Thursday, 20 November 2025, would require Ukraine to make significant territorial and military concessions to end Russia's nearly four-year-long invasion. The development has drawn sharp criticism from some Ukrainian officials and blindsided European allies, while placing a stark choice between sovereignty and peace before Kyiv.

In a nightly video address on Thursday, President Zelenskyy confirmed receipt of the draft plan and stated he would speak with Trump about the diplomatic opportunities. "Ukraine needs peace and Ukraine will do everything so that no one in the world can say we are upending diplomacy," he remarked, adopting a measured tone that contrasted with other Ukrainian officials who labelled the plan "absurd" and a "provocation." The proposal was reportedly formulated without Kyiv's consultation.

Details of the plan, as reported by multiple international news outlets, suggest it aligns closely with Moscow's long-standing demands. Key provisions reportedly include Ukraine ceding the entirety of the eastern Donbas region, formal recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, a halving of its military forces, and a constitutional ban on joining NATO. In return, Russia would allegedly commit to no future attacks, and Western sanctions could be lifted. The framework was reportedly developed through a backchannel between Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Kirill Dmitriev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While the epicentre of the conflict is thousands of kilometres away, its resolution—or continuation—has direct and significant consequences for Kenya. The war has been a primary driver of global inflation, disrupting supply chains for critical commodities. For Kenyan households, this has translated into painfully high prices for basic goods. The conflict choked off a major source of wheat and fertilizer, with Kenya importing a substantial portion of its wheat from the region. This disruption led to price hikes for bread and other staples, exacerbating food insecurity, particularly in urban informal settlements.

A 2022 study highlighted that rising fuel and fertilizer prices negatively impacted Kenya's crop productivity and the broader economy. The Kenyan government has previously implemented fuel and fertilizer subsidies to cushion citizens from the worst effects, but these measures came at a considerable fiscal cost. A potential peace deal, even a controversial one, offers the prospect of stabilizing these markets, which could ease the cost of living for millions of Kenyans. A UNDP analysis noted that price shocks from the war slowed Kenya's economic recovery and progress on Sustainable Development Goals.

The conflict has also presented complex diplomatic and security challenges for Nairobi. In a statement on Wednesday, 12 November 2025, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi confirmed that over 200 Kenyan nationals are believed to be fighting for Russian forces, often lured by deceptive job offers. The Kenyan government is engaged in high-level diplomatic talks with both Moscow and Kyiv to secure their repatriation. This situation underscores the human cost of the war extending even to East Africa.

Kenya's official diplomatic posture has evolved. Initially, at the UN Security Council, Kenya's ambassador offered a powerful condemnation of Russia's invasion, invoking Africa's colonial past to defend the principle of territorial integrity. However, by June 2025, government policy shifted towards a more neutral, non-aligned stance, in line with many other African nations. This position was reiterated by President William Ruto in August 2025, when he emphasized the UN Charter and called for dialogue as the only path to peace. This Trump-backed plan, which appears to compromise Ukraine's sovereignty, will test this carefully balanced neutrality.

Global Reactions and Uncertain Future

European leaders have expressed significant concern, emphasizing that any viable peace plan must have both Ukrainian and European support. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, "For any plan to work, it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board." Many allies fear the proposal rewards Russian aggression and could embolden Moscow. Former US diplomats have described the reported deal as "terrible" and shocking. The Kremlin has remained non-committal, stating its stance has not shifted since previous talks.

The proposal arrives as Ukrainian forces struggle on the battlefield against a larger Russian army. For President Zelenskyy, the plan presents an agonizing dilemma: accept painful concessions that may be seen as a capitulation in exchange for peace, or continue a costly war with an uncertain outcome. The coming days of negotiation will be critical, with the stability of Europe and the economic well-being of nations as far away as Kenya hanging in the balance.