GLOBAL - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday, 21st November 2025, declared his nation faces “one of the most difficult moments in history” after the United States presented a 28-point peace plan that pressures Kyiv to concede territory to end Russia’s war. In a national address, Zelenskyy framed the situation as a stark choice between losing the US as a key partner or sacrificing Ukraine’s “dignity.”

The proposal, drafted by US and Russian envoys, was delivered to Zelenskyy this week with an ultimatum from US President Donald Trump to accept the framework by Thanksgiving, Thursday, 27th November 2025. “Thursday is, we think, an appropriate time,” Trump stated in a radio interview on Friday. The plan reportedly requires Ukraine to cede Russian-controlled territories in Crimea and Donbas, significantly reduce its armed forces, and constitutionally guarantee it will not join NATO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded positively to the proposal, stating on Friday that it could “be used as the basis for a final peaceful settlement.” He warned that Russian forces would continue to advance unless a peace agreement is reached, framing the deal as an acknowledgment of the reality on the battlefield.

European leaders, however, have expressed significant concern, insisting on the principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa confirmed that leaders would discuss the US proposal on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Johannesburg this weekend. The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, stated that any meaningful effort to end the war requires Ukrainian and European agreement.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While geographically distant, the war’s outcome carries substantial weight for Kenya. The conflict has severely disrupted global supply chains, leading to sharp increases in the prices of fuel, fertilizer, and essential food commodities like wheat. According to a United Nations Development Programme analysis, these price shocks have slowed Kenya's economic recovery and exacerbated food insecurity. A peace settlement could potentially stabilize these markets, offering relief to Kenyan households and agricultural producers who have faced soaring costs.

However, the diplomatic precedent set by the US plan poses a direct challenge to Kenya’s foundational foreign policy principles. Kenya has consistently advocated for the respect of sovereignty and territorial integrity, a position famously articulated by Ambassador Martin Kimani at the UN Security Council in February 2022. Kimani invoked Africa's colonial history, arguing that African nations chose to accept inherited borders to avoid perpetual conflict, rejecting expansionism based on historical or ethnic claims. President William Ruto reiterated this stance in August 2025, stating Kenya’s firm belief in the UN Charter and that dialogue, not war, is the path to peace. A deal that legitimizes the seizure of territory by force would undermine this long-held principle, which is critical to stability in a continent with many colonial-era borders.

The crisis also unfolds amid a recalibration of US policy toward Africa under the Trump administration, which has prioritized trade and investment over traditional development aid. This “America First” approach has seen cuts to foreign aid while promoting initiatives like Prosper Africa to increase commercial ties. The administration's focus on countering Chinese and Russian influence on the continent could shape its future engagement with key partners like Kenya.

The conflict has also had a direct human impact, with Kenya’s government stating in early November 2025 that over 200 of its citizens are fighting for Russia, many lured by deceptive recruitment networks. President Ruto has engaged President Zelenskyy directly to seek the release of Kenyans detained in the conflict zone.

As the Thanksgiving deadline approaches, President Zelenskyy has vowed to work “constructively” with the US to amend the deal, seeking a solution that does not betray Ukraine's national interest. The outcome of these high-stakes negotiations will not only determine the future of Ukraine but will also send ripples across the globe, affecting everything from the price of bread in Nairobi to the bedrock principles of international law that govern state sovereignty.