Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday declared his country faces an "impossible choice" after reports emerged that the United States administration of Donald Trump has demanded Kyiv accept a 28-point peace plan that would require ceding territory to Russia. In a sombre national address from Kyiv, Zelenskyy stated the proposal, which European officials have reportedly labelled a "capitulation," forces Ukraine to choose between its national dignity and risking the loss of a key strategic partner.

The US-backed plan, reportedly delivered with a Thanksgiving deadline, would compel Ukraine to surrender the entire eastern Donbas region, formally renounce ambitions to join NATO, and reduce the size of its military, according to multiple international reports. In exchange, sanctions on Russia could be lifted, and Moscow might be readmitted to the G8 group of economies. Speaking on Fox News Radio, President Trump reportedly confirmed the timeline, stating he believed it was an "appropriate time" for a deal.

"Agreeing to the US-Russian plan could leave Ukraine without freedom, dignity and justice," Zelenskyy said, vowing not to betray the country's constitution. "We did not betray Ukraine then [in 2022], and we will not do so now."

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While the conflict rages thousands of kilometres away, its resolution carries significant weight for Kenya. An end to the war could ease economic pressures that have strained Kenyan households. The conflict has driven up the cost of fuel, fertilizer, and essential food imports like wheat, contributing to domestic inflation. A peace deal, whatever its terms, might stabilize these global commodity prices, offering potential relief to Kenyan consumers and farmers.

However, the reported terms of the Trump plan present a severe challenge to long-standing principles of Kenyan and African foreign policy. The cornerstone of the African Union's (AU) Constitutive Act, inherited from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), is the strict respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states. Forcing a nation to cede territory to an aggressor sets a deeply concerning international precedent. Kenya's Permanent Representative to the UN, Martin Kimani, notably condemned Russia's invasion at the UN Security Council in February 2022, framing it as an attack on the very principles that protect post-colonial nations from being plunged "back into new forms of domination and oppression."

Nairobi has consistently voted in the UN General Assembly to condemn Russia's aggression and its illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories. A US-led plan that legitimizes these annexations would put Kenya in a difficult diplomatic position, forcing a choice between aligning with a major Western partner and upholding foundational tenets of international law that protect smaller nations.

A New Global Order?

The proposed plan signals a potential major shift in US foreign policy towards a more transactional approach, prioritizing rapid conflict resolution over long-term alliance commitments. This move has reportedly been met with alarm in European capitals, which have insisted that any just and lasting peace must respect Ukraine's sovereignty and involve European partners in negotiations. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, "Russia has no legal right whatsoever to any concessions from the country it invaded."

The ultimatum from Washington leaves Kyiv in a perilous position. Rejecting the deal could risk the suspension of vital military and intelligence support from the US, leaving its forces vulnerable. Accepting it would mean sacrificing significant territory and sovereignty, a move Zelenskyy has repeatedly ruled out. As the world watches Kyiv's next move, nations like Kenya are left to analyze the potential fallout of a new geopolitical reality where economic interests and great-power politics could override the fundamental right of nations to their own territorial integrity.