An independent candidate has delivered a stunning defeat to Speaker Moses Wetang'ula's FORD Kenya party right in his Bungoma backyard, shaking the region's political landscape to its core. The decisive victory for a newcomer against an established party raises urgent questions about the Speaker's grip on Western Kenya politics.

The by-election in Chwele-Kabachai ward, held on Thursday, November 27, 2025, was necessitated by the death of the previous MCA, James Barasa Mukhongo, who was a member of FORD Kenya. This contest was immediately framed as a test of Wetang'ula's influence, an influence he has wielded in Bungoma for over 15 years.

A Decisive Grassroots Victory

Eric Wekesa, running as an independent, was declared the winner after securing a commanding 6,162 votes. His closest rival, FORD Kenya's Vincent Maunda, trailed significantly with 2,765 votes. The results signal a powerful rejection of the party establishment by the local electorate.

• Eric Wekesa (Independent): 6,162 votes
• Vincent Maunda (FORD Kenya): 2,765 votes

Wekesa's victory was engineered by a formidable local alliance that included former Bungoma Governor Wycliffe Wangamati and Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, who is himself at odds with his party leader, Wetang'ula. This coalition was further bolstered when Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya successfully mediated for the DAP-K candidate to step down in favour of Wekesa, consolidating the opposition against FORD Kenya.

A Campaign Marred by Tension

The run-up to the vote was anything but peaceful. Campaigns were marked by high tension and episodes of violence. On November 22, a rally for Wekesa, attended by Governor Natembeya, was violently disrupted by chaos that involved tear gas and alleged gunfire, forcing the governor's security to evacuate him. Natembeya and his allies publicly accused Speaker Wetang'ula of orchestrating the chaos to intimidate opponents, a charge that highlights the bitter political divisions in the region.

Wekesa's campaign effectively branded him as a peacemaker, leveraging social media and local radio to connect with younger voters and women. This strategy contrasted sharply with the portrayal of the opposition camp, which was painted as confrontational during the heated campaign period.

The outcome is a clear political humiliation for Wetang'ula, who as Speaker of the National Assembly is the third most powerful figure in the country's leadership. Analysts will be watching closely to see if this grassroots rebellion in Chwele-Kabachai is an isolated event or the first tremor of a larger political realignment in Western Kenya ahead of the next general election.