Prominent West African leaders are casting serious doubt on a military takeover in Guinea-Bissau, with some calling it a 'sham' designed to disrupt the nation's presidential election. The seizure of power on November 26 came just a day before official election results were due to be announced.

The controversy plunges the small coastal nation into a deeper political crisis, threatening stability in a region already known as the "coup belt" after a series of military takeovers in recent years. Ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who had claimed victory, was arrested before being flown to neighbouring Senegal.

Senegal's Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko bluntly labeled the event a "sham" and demanded that the electoral process be completed. Nigeria's former president, Goodluck Jonathan, who was an election observer, echoed these suspicions, describing the incident as a "ceremonial coup." Jonathan questioned why Embaló was able to announce his own overthrow to the media while supposedly detained, a stark contrast to other recent coups in the region.

A Coup Under Scrutiny

The military junta, calling itself the 'High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order', has suspended the electoral process indefinitely. They justified their actions by claiming to have thwarted a plot by politicians and "narcotraffickers" to manipulate the election results. However, critics allege Embaló orchestrated the crisis to avoid a potential election defeat to his challenger, Fernando Dias da Costa, who also claimed he was on track to win.

Guinea-Bissau has a long and troubled history of political instability, with at least nine coups or attempted coups since gaining independence in 1974. This latest event adds another turbulent chapter, leaving the population in a state of profound uncertainty.

In response to the turmoil, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) held an emergency summit and suspended Guinea-Bissau from all its decision-making bodies. The regional bloc condemned the takeover, rejecting what it called an "illegal abortion of the democratic process," and demanded the immediate release of election results.

The View from Kenya

For Kenya and the wider East African community, the events in Guinea-Bissau are a worrying sign of democratic backsliding on the continent. While direct economic ties are limited, the precedent set by repeated military interventions challenges the African Union's principles of constitutional order. Kenya's government has previously voiced strong opposition to military takeovers in West Africa. President William Ruto has condemned similar coups, viewing them as a significant setback to Africa's democratic progress.

The instability also has broader implications for continental security and investor confidence. Political upheaval in one region can deter foreign investment and complicate diplomatic efforts across Africa. The African Union's Peace and Security Council was scheduled to hold an emergency session to address the crisis, underscoring the continent-wide concern.

• Mali: August 2020 & May 2021
• Guinea: September 2021
• Sudan: October 2021
• Burkina Faso: January & September 2022
• Niger: July 2023

As the situation in Guinea-Bissau unfolds, regional and international bodies are calling for a swift return to constitutional order. The path forward remains unclear, however, with the military now entrenched and the democratic will of the people held in suspense.