Former Nyeri Town Member of Parliament, Ngunjiri Wambugu, has publicly anticipated that Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua will allege voter fraud following the conclusion of today's nationwide by-elections. In a statement made on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, Wambugu suggested that Gachagua is poised to contest the results, particularly in key battleground constituencies. "From tomorrow, we should expect Rigathi Gachagua to come up with the most amazing stories of ogres on how votes will be stolen in Mbeere, Malava, Narok and Magarini," Wambugu posted on his Facebook account. He added, "I assure you, he will shock us with his innovativeness."

Wambugu's comments come on the morning of Thursday, November 27, 2025 (EAT), as voters in 24 electoral units—including seven parliamentary seats and 17 ward-level seats—cast their ballots. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) confirmed the date and details in a gazette notice on August 8, 2025, setting the stage for what analysts describe as a "mini General Election" and a significant stress test for Kenya's electoral systems before 2027.

A Deepening Political Rift

The remarks from Wambugu highlight a significant and public political fallout with Gachagua. Wambugu, who once worked as a communications strategist for the former Deputy President, has distanced himself, citing ideological differences. The primary point of contention, according to Wambugu, is Gachagua's push to establish the DCP as the sole dominant political party in the Mount Kenya region, a strategy Wambugu views as undemocratic and a regression to a dictatorial era. "I don't agree on principle; for example, on a statement that he has made several times that DCP is going to be the sole party in the Mount Kenya region," Wambugu stated in a television interview on June 5, 2025.

This political divergence has seen Wambugu frequently critique his former ally's political manoeuvres. In May 2025, he sharply condemned Gachagua for remarks that appeared to suggest the 2027 elections could be more violent than the 2007 post-election crisis, calling the comparison "reckless" and "irresponsible." Despite their disagreements, Wambugu has clarified that their differences are based on political principle rather than personal animosity, even signalling a potential willingness to collaborate in the future under different strategic circumstances.

High-Stakes Electoral Battlegrounds

Today's by-elections are widely seen as a crucial barometer of political influence between President William Ruto's ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the opposition coalition led by Gachagua. The contests in Mbeere North, Malava, and Magarini are particularly significant, serving as proxy battles for the two political heavyweights. A victory for President Ruto's UDA candidates would reaffirm his grassroots support, especially in the contested Mt. Kenya and Western regions. Conversely, wins for candidates backed by Gachagua's coalition would bolster his standing as a formidable opposition leader and the de facto political kingpin of the Mt. Kenya voting bloc.

The political tensions surrounding these polls have been palpable. Gachagua himself has been vocal about potential electoral malpractice. On Monday, November 24, 2025, he wrote to the IEBC raising concerns about the integrity of the process in Magarini Constituency. In the letter addressed to IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon, Gachagua accused IEBC Vice Chairperson Fahima Araphat Abdallah of intimidating local election officials and demanded that the commission ensure a fair and transparent process. The UDA party responded by condemning Gachagua's letter as a "misguided missile of pent-up vendetta" and urged the IEBC to launch an inquiry into his claims.

IEBC Under Scrutiny

The IEBC, under its new chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon, faces a significant test of its capacity and impartiality. The commission has assured the public of its preparedness, having finalized the registration of 181 candidates and dispatched election materials nationwide. The campaign period officially ended on Monday, November 24, 2025, as per IEBC guidelines. The outcome and management of these 24 by-elections—spanning constituencies like Banisa, Ugunja, Kasipul, and a senate seat in Baringo—will be heavily scrutinized and are expected to significantly influence political realignments and strategies leading up to the 2027 General Election.