High-Stakes Contests Marred by Violence

NAIROBI – A series of high-stakes by-elections scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, have been overshadowed by escalating violence, voter intimidation, and inflammatory rhetoric from senior political figures, raising significant concerns about the integrity of the electoral process. The contests, seen as a crucial political barometer for President William Ruto’s government and the opposition, have devolved into fierce proxy battles, with deadly consequences reported in Homa Bay County and violent confrontations marring campaigns in Western Kenya.

The most severe incident occurred in Kasipul constituency, where violent clashes between rival supporters on November 6, 2025, resulted in the deaths of two young men. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has since launched a formal investigation into the killings. In a statement on November 19, 2025, the IEBC’s Electoral Code of Conduct Enforcement Committee fined the two main candidates, Boyd Were of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and independent candidate Philip Aroko, KSh 1 million each, holding them responsible for failing to adhere to a harmonized campaign schedule which led to the fatal confrontation. IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon has repeatedly condemned the violence, warning that any candidate found culpable of breaching the electoral code faces disqualification.

Accusations of State-Sponsored Violence

The political climate has been further poisoned by serious allegations from opposition figures who claim the state is orchestrating violence to influence the outcomes. On Saturday, November 22, 2025, a convoy belonging to Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya was attacked in Chwele, Bungoma County, while he was campaigning for a Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) candidate. Following the incident, opposition leaders labelled the attack “state-sponsored violence.”

Similarly, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, leader of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), has accused the government of using police and militia to disrupt his party's campaigns. In formal letters to the Inspector General of Police and the IEBC, Gachagua alleged that a campaign rally in Narok Town Ward on November 24 was violently dispersed by police who lobbed teargas and fired live ammunition while escorting armed groups. He further claimed there is an elaborate scheme to rig the by-elections by intimidating his party's agents.

Government Denies Claims, Warns Agitators

Senior government officials have forcefully pushed back against these accusations, instead warning political leaders against incitement. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, speaking on Tuesday, November 25, assured voters of enhanced security and warned that anyone instigating violence would face “the full wrath of the law.” “All Kenyans must exercise their right to choose their leaders without any form of threats to their lives,” Kindiki stated during a final campaign tour, urging a large voter turnout.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has also been on the campaign trail, issuing sharp political warnings, particularly aimed at Governor Natembeya, signaling a fierce contest for political influence in the Western region ahead of the 2027 general election. The heated exchanges have become deeply personal in some contests, such as the Mbeere North by-election, which has turned into a proxy war between Deputy President Kindiki and former Deputy President Gachagua. On November 23, Kindiki threatened to expose alleged “dirty secrets” concerning Gachagua, escalating their public feud.

IEBC Under Pressure

The escalating tensions and violence place the newly constituted IEBC under immense pressure to ensure the 24 scheduled by-elections are conducted freely and fairly. The commission has established a Code of Conduct Enforcement Committee to investigate multiple complaints and has summoned candidates in Kasipul for hearings. Opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka has also raised alarms over alleged widespread voter bribery, claiming voters are being offered up to KSh 5,000 to photograph their ballots, a tactic he described as a “desperate act of corruption.” As Kenyans head to the polls, the conduct of the security forces and the electoral commission will be closely monitored as a key indicator of the nation's democratic health and its preparedness for the 2027 General Election.