The race for Nairobi’s top seat has a new, unexpected frontrunner. A poll by Kenya Track places Embakasi North MP James Gakuya ahead of the pack with 45% support, signalling deep voter dissatisfaction with the current county leadership.

The survey, conducted between December 2025 and January 2026, sampled 3,789 Nairobians. It paints a picture of a fragmented electorate tired of "slay queen" politics and yearning for a "fixer" to address the city’s garbage, water, and traffic crises.

The "Bazenga" Factor

Gakuya, known as "Bazenga" in political circles, has been a quiet but effective operator. His rise suggests that UDA’s internal wars in Nairobi might be shifting in his favor, potentially sidelining current Governor Johnson Sakaja.

• The Numbers: Gakuya leads with 45%, followed by a crowded field of challengers including Tim Wanyonyi and Agnes Kagure. Crucially, 20% of voters remain undecided, making the race wide open.
• Key Issues: Respondents cited "corruption at City Hall" and "poor service delivery" as their primary motivators for seeking change. Gakuya’s hard stance on cartels seems to be resonating with the frustrated business community.
• UDA Dilemma: The poll complicates matters for the ruling party. Should they back the incumbent Sakaja, or pivot to the rising Gakuya? The upcoming UDA grassroots elections could settle this score.