BELÉM, BRAZIL – As global leaders convened for the COP30 climate summit, a stark warning from a senior United States lawmaker has underscored a pivotal shift in the global energy landscape with direct implications for Kenya and East Africa. U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, attending the summit in an unofficial capacity, stated on Friday, November 14, 2025, that the Trump administration is “deliberately losing” the clean technology race to China, a move that threatens to reshape global supply chains and influence the trajectory of Africa's green transition.

The Trump administration confirmed it would not send a high-level official delegation to the talks in Belém, a first in the history of the UN climate conferences, signaling a retreat from international climate diplomacy. In their absence, Senator Whitehouse argued that Washington's aggressively pro-fossil-fuel policies are a “huge self-administered blow,” designed to benefit fossil fuel donors while conceding a vast economic opportunity to Beijing in solar, wind, battery storage, and electric vehicles.

A Widening Technology Gap

Recent data paints a complex but revealing picture of the technology rivalry. While a BloombergNEF analysis from October 2024 showed the U.S. narrowly surpassed China in climate-tech financing for the first half of 2024—raising $6.7 billion to China's $5.1 billion, largely due to incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act—broader investment and manufacturing figures show China's overwhelming dominance.

A separate BloombergNEF report published in January 2025 revealed that of the record $2.1 trillion invested in the global energy transition in 2024, China accounted for $818 billion, while U.S. investment remained flat at $338 billion. Furthermore, a staggering 76% of all investment in new clean-tech manufacturing facilities in 2024 was directed to mainland China, which now controls over 70% of the global manufacturing capacity for most major clean energy technologies. A November 2025 report from McKinsey confirmed that China has accounted for approximately two-thirds of the recent global deployment of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles.

This manufacturing supremacy is a key factor in global supply chains. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its 2025 World Energy Outlook that despite a U.S. policy shift away from renewables, global expansion continues, with China remaining the largest market. However, the IEA also scaled back its global forecast for renewable power growth to 2030, citing weaker outlooks in both the U.S. under the Trump administration and China, where the government is shifting from guaranteed prices to more competitive auctions.

Implications for Kenya's Green Ambitions

This global dynamic has profound implications for Kenya, a nation at the forefront of Africa's renewable energy push. Kenya has set ambitious targets, aiming for 100% clean energy in its power system by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, as outlined in policies unveiled at the UN General Assembly in September 2025. The country's Kenya Energy Transition and Investment Plan, launched in November 2024, estimates a need for $600 billion in capital investment by 2050 to achieve these goals.

Currently, over 90% of Kenya's electricity is generated from renewable sources, primarily geothermal, hydropower, wind, and solar. However, the hardware underpinning this success is overwhelmingly sourced from abroad, predominantly from China. According to a May 2025 report by the ODI Global think tank, China is a key contractor and technology provider for Kenya's energy transition. In 2024 alone, 96% of solar panels and 81% of lithium-ion batteries imported into Kenya came from China. Chinese firms have been instrumental in major projects, including the 50-megawatt Garissa solar park and the Olkaria geothermal plants.

The U.S. retreat from the clean tech sector risks deepening this dependency. While China's role has been crucial for building Kenya's renewable capacity, an over-reliance on a single technology and financing partner presents long-term strategic risks, including supply chain vulnerability and reduced geopolitical leverage. A planned $1 billion geothermal-powered data center in Olkaria, a partnership involving U.S. tech giant Microsoft, was seen as a potential cornerstone of American-led clean tech investment in the region but has reportedly stalled.

Navigating a New Energy World Order

As the U.S. pivots its energy policy domestically—with the Solar Energy Industries Association warning that hundreds of planned U.S. solar projects are now at risk of cancellation—the global stage is being ceded. For Kenya, the challenge is to navigate this new world order. The availability of low-cost Chinese technology accelerates the green transition and enhances energy access. Joseph Siror, CEO of Kenya Power, noted in February 2025 that Chinese technology has boosted the reliability and affordability of the country's electricity supply.

However, experts warn that African nations must strive for energy sovereignty rather than becoming mere consumers of foreign technology. The evolving U.S.-China dynamic presents an opportunity for Kenya to leverage its position as a climate leader to attract a more diverse set of international partners and investments. By strengthening local manufacturing capabilities and fostering innovation, Kenya can mitigate the risks of dependency and chart a more resilient path toward its sustainable development goals, turning a global power struggle into a strategic advantage for the continent.