NAIROBI – The United States aviation system began a gradual return to normalcy on Thursday, November 13, 2025, following the end of the longest government shutdown in its history. The 43-day federal funding impasse, which commenced on October 1, 2025, and concluded late Wednesday, November 12, 2025, caused significant disruptions to air travel, with thousands of flights cancelled or delayed. While operations are recovering, the crisis has exposed deep vulnerabilities in global supply chains, with Kenyan horticultural exporters and the tourism sector closely monitoring the lingering impacts.

The disruption stemmed from the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, including approximately 14,000 air traffic controllers who were deemed essential and forced to work without pay. This exacerbated a pre-existing, chronic shortage of controllers, leading to increased absenteeism and strain on the system. In response to mounting safety concerns, the U.S. Department of Transportation, led by Secretary Sean Duffy, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) took the unprecedented step of ordering mandatory flight reductions at 40 of the nation's busiest airports. The cuts began at 4% on November 7 and reached 6% before being frozen as the shutdown ended. At its peak, the crisis led to over 2,600 cancellations in a single day.

Impact on Kenya's Economy

The United States is a critical market for Kenya, particularly for high-value, perishable exports like fresh-cut flowers, which rely heavily on air freight. The shutdown-induced flight cancellations and delays created significant uncertainty for Kenyan producers. Industry leaders had previously warned that any disruption in the U.S. aviation network could lead to substantial financial losses, compounding existing logistical challenges that saw flower export earnings drop in 2024. According to the Kenya Flower Council, the sector was already facing airfreight capacity shortages even before the shutdown.

The crisis also posed a threat to Kenya's tourism industry, for which the U.S. is a primary source market. The direct Nairobi-to-New York route operated by Kenya Airways is a vital corridor for American tourists. While flight tracking data for Kenya Airways flight KQ2 to New York's JFK airport during the shutdown period shows some delays, outright cancellations of this key route appear to have been avoided. However, the broader chaos within the U.S. domestic flight network could have deterred potential travelers and impacted bookings for the upcoming holiday season.

Furthermore, the shutdown stalled crucial trade negotiations between Nairobi and Washington. With the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) having expired, discussions for a new bilateral trade agreement are a high priority for Kenya. The paralysis in Washington, which affects agencies like the Office of the United States Trade Representative, created delays and uncertainty for Kenyan exporters, especially in the textile sector which employs tens of thousands.

Economic Fallout and Recovery

The economic cost of the 43-day shutdown to the U.S. economy is estimated to be at least $7 billion in lost output, with some estimates projecting a permanent loss of up to $11 billion. The Congressional Budget Office had warned that a shutdown of this length could significantly reduce GDP growth.

In a statement on Thursday, November 13, 2025, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed that the recovery of the airspace was underway. "The FAA safety team is encouraged to see our air traffic control staffing surge, and they feel comfortable with pausing the reduction schedule to give us time to review the airspace," Duffy stated. Airlines, which had cancelled thousands of flights, are now working to restore their schedules ahead of the busy Thanksgiving travel week. However, officials caution that residual delays could persist for several days as the system fully resets.

The crisis has intensified calls to address the systemic understaffing of air traffic controllers, a problem that government reports have highlighted for years and which was worsened by hiring freezes during previous shutdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic. For Kenya, the event serves as a stark reminder of its economic interdependence with global partners and the critical need for stable, predictable trade and logistics networks.