A Pathway to Peace?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Tuesday his readiness to advance a US-backed peace proposal and discuss contentious points directly with US President Donald Trump, signalling a potential breakthrough in the protracted conflict with Russia. In a virtual address to the ‘Coalition of the Willing’, a group of allied nations, Zelenskyy confirmed Kyiv is prepared to move forward with a framework developed during recent talks in Geneva. He stressed the importance of including European allies in any high-level discussions with President Trump.

The diplomatic flurry follows the circulation of a 28-point peace plan drafted by the US, which has undergone revisions following input from both Ukrainian and Russian officials. President Trump, in a Truth Social post on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, stated that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while Army Secretary Dan Driscoll would engage with Ukrainian officials. The original plan reportedly contained sensitive proposals, including Ukraine ceding territory and abandoning its bid for NATO membership, sparking concern in Kyiv and European capitals. However, after recent talks, Ukrainian officials indicated the plan has been refined, with Zelenskyy noting, "there are fewer points, no longer 28, and many correct elements have been incorporated."

The Kenyan Connection: A Costly Conflict

For Kenya, a resolution to the conflict cannot come soon enough. While geographically distant, the war has inflicted significant economic pain on the country, exacerbating the cost of living for millions. The conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russia severely disrupted global supply chains, causing the prices of fuel, fertiliser, and wheat to skyrocket. According to a United Nations Development Programme analysis, the war's impact may have cost the Kenyan economy up to 2.8% of its GDP in 2022, primarily driven by the surge in global commodity prices.

Kenya is heavily dependent on imports of wheat from both Russia and Ukraine, which collectively accounted for a significant portion of its supply before the war. The disruption led to a sharp increase in the price of bread and other wheat-based products, a staple for many households. Similarly, Russia is a major global exporter of fertiliser, and the conflict caused prices in Kenya to surge, with a 50kg bag at one point projected to hit KSh 7,000. This price shock directly impacted farmers' productivity, threatening food security and driving up food prices. The surge in global fuel prices further compounded the economic strain, increasing transport costs and affecting nearly every sector of the economy.

International Efforts and Kenya's Stance

The international community is intensifying efforts to broker a peace deal. The ‘Coalition of the Willing’, co-hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and including France's President Emmanuel Macron, met on Tuesday to discuss the US plan and a framework for a potential "reassurance force" to deploy in Ukraine post-ceasefire. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s participation marked a rare American involvement in the coalition's discussions. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed the bloc's commitment to applying economic pressure on Russia, stating that coordinated sanctions are shrinking Moscow's resources to wage war.

Kenya's diplomatic position has evolved throughout the conflict. Initially, Kenya's ambassador to the UN, Martin Kimani, delivered a powerful condemnation of Russia's actions in February 2022, invoking Africa's colonial history to oppose the violation of territorial integrity. More recently, President William Ruto has emphasised a more neutral stance, advocating for diplomacy and dialogue as the only path to peace while upholding the principles of the UN Charter. This position reflects the complex challenge facing Kenya: balancing international principles with the urgent need to mitigate the war's severe economic consequences for its citizens. The government has also been engaged in delicate negotiations to repatriate Kenyan nationals deceptively recruited into the conflict.

As diplomatic efforts continue, the potential for a peace agreement holds significant implications for global stability and economic recovery. For Kenyans, a successful resolution could translate into tangible relief at the fuel pump, lower prices for unga, and more affordable farm inputs, offering a hopeful prospect after years of economic hardship linked to the distant war.