GLOBAL - The United Kingdom's economy grew by a mere 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, a significant slowdown that fell short of market expectations and highlights growing economic fragility in one of Kenya's key trading partners. The data, released on Thursday, November 13, 2025, by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS), was heavily impacted by a crippling cyber-attack on automotive giant Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which dragged the entire economy into a 0.1% contraction in the month of September.

The ONS report detailed a sharp decline in industrial output, directly attributing it to the disruption at JLR, a major brand in the Kenyan luxury vehicle market. According to the statistics agency, overall production fell by 2.0% in September, driven by a staggering 28.6% collapse in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers. This single factor was significant enough to detract 0.17 percentage points from the month's total GDP. The September slump followed a downwardly revised growth figure of zero for August, indicating a broader loss of momentum even before the cyber incident.

The third-quarter growth of 0.1% represents a marked deceleration from the 0.3% expansion recorded between April and June 2025 and was below the 0.2% growth anticipated by economists.

Wider Economic Pressures

The weak GDP figures compound other worrying economic indicators. On Tuesday, November 11, 2025, the ONS announced that the UK's unemployment rate for the third quarter had risen to 5.0%, the highest level in four years. This softening labour market, combined with sluggish growth, has intensified pressure on the Bank of England to stimulate the economy.

At its meeting on Thursday, November 6, 2025, the bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow 5-4 margin to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.0%. However, the close vote and the downbeat economic data have led many analysts to predict a rate cut at the committee's next meeting in December.

The JLR Cyber-Attack

The disruption at Jaguar Land Rover, which has a significant retail and service presence in Nairobi through Inchcape Kenya, stemmed from a sophisticated cyber-attack that first emerged in early September 2025. The incident forced the company, a subsidiary of India's Tata Motors, to halt production at its major UK manufacturing plants, including Solihull and Halewood, to contain the breach. The shutdown, which extended for several weeks, was estimated to affect the production of approximately 1,000 vehicles per day, with significant financial losses and widespread disruption to the automotive supply chain.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While no immediate impact on JLR vehicle availability in Kenya has been confirmed, the UK's economic stagnation presents potential headwinds for East Africa. The UK is a critical export market for Kenya; total trade between the nations was £2.1 billion in the year to the end of June 2025, according to the UK's Department for Business and Trade. A slowdown in UK consumer spending could dampen demand for key Kenyan exports such as cut flowers, tea, coffee, and vegetables.

In the year ending September 2025, Kenyan exports to the UK had seen strong growth, but sustained economic weakness and falling consumer confidence in Britain could reverse this trend. Furthermore, the UK is Kenya's largest source of tourism from Europe, and a protracted economic downturn could reduce the number of British visitors, impacting a vital source of foreign exchange revenue for the country. The Central Bank of Kenya has previously noted that economic slowdowns in key partner economies like the UK can negatively affect remittances and tourism. The latest figures serve as a cautionary signal for Kenyan exporters and policymakers to monitor the economic climate in key international markets closely. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED on the direct impact on local JLR supply chains.