Former President Uhuru Kenyatta has re-entered active politics, signaling a potential realignment of forces ahead of the 2027 General Election. This move coincides with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i's declaration of his presidential ambitions, with Kenyatta's Jubilee Party endorsing him as its flagbearer.

Kenyatta, who had maintained a relatively low profile since his retirement in September 2022, has recently engaged in heightened political activities, including meetings with Jubilee politicians and opposition leader Raila Odinga. This marks a departure from the tradition of past retired presidents, Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki, who largely withdrew from active politics. Analysts suggest Kenyatta's re-engagement sends a strong message regarding his preferred candidate for 2027, indicating he will not back President William Ruto.

Context of Shifting Alliances

The Kenyan political scene is characterized by shifting alliances and ethnic mobilization, with strategies for the 2027 elections already taking shape. The incumbent government coalition, led by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), faces internal suspicions, while the United Opposition appears to be grappling with internal dynamics and divergent visions.

Fred Matiang'i, whose political prominence grew significantly during his tenure in Kenyatta's administration, particularly as the 'super minister' overseeing various government programs, has officially declared his intention to run for president in 2027. His candidacy, backed by the Jubilee Party, introduces a new dynamic, especially in the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region, where he will likely contend with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for influence.

Law and Policy on Retired Presidents

Kenya's Presidential Retirement Benefits Act 2003 stipulates that a retired president shall not hold office in any political party for more than six months after ceasing to hold office. While Kenyatta applied for and began receiving his retirement benefits in December 2022, he has not resigned from his leadership roles in the Jubilee Party and the Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya Coalition Party. This continued political involvement has sparked debate, with some arguing he has a constitutional right to participate in political discourse, while others believe he should maintain an elder statesman role.

Stakeholder Perspectives

Stakeholders are urging clarity on the timelines, costs, and safeguards surrounding these political developments. Uriri Member of Parliament Mark Nyamita suggested in September 2025 that Matiang'i was distancing himself from the united opposition coalition, citing remarks where Matiang'i reportedly dismissed fellow opposition leaders as “noise makers.” This indicates potential rifts within the opposition, with some members even labeling Matiang'i a “state project.”

Evidence and Data

• Matiang'i's Endorsement: The Jubilee Party, led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, endorsed Fred Matiang'i as its 2027 presidential flagbearer in February 2025.
• Uhuru's Political Activities: Kenyatta has held meetings with Jubilee politicians from Kiambu County and opposition leader Raila Odinga, signaling his return to active politics.
• Public Debate Influence: Analysts suggest these developments could influence near-term public debate and policy execution.
• 2027 Electoral Landscape: The 2027 elections are expected to be a significant contest, with a focus on concrete governance outcomes and service delivery.
• AI in Elections: The increasing role of Artificial Intelligence in digital disinformation poses a significant challenge to electoral integrity in the lead-up to 2027.

Risks and Implications

The re-entry of former President Kenyatta into active politics and Matiang'i's presidential bid could lead to a highly competitive and potentially polarized political environment. A new political battle is anticipated between Kenyatta and Deputy President Gachagua for control of the Mt. Kenya vote, which is crucial for presidential success. The fragmentation within the opposition, as suggested by Nyamita, could further complicate the political landscape. Additionally, the spread of AI-driven misinformation remains a significant risk to electoral integrity.

Unknowns

• The full extent of former President Kenyatta's political involvement and its impact on various political factions remains to be seen.
• Whether Fred Matiang'i can consolidate sufficient support, particularly from the Mt. Kenya region, despite Kenyatta's backing, is uncertain.
• The long-term implications of the shifting alliances and internal dynamics within both the government and opposition coalitions are yet to unfold.

Timeline

• September 2022: Uhuru Kenyatta retires from the presidency.
• December 2022: Kenyatta begins receiving retirement benefits.
• February 2025: Jubilee Party endorses Fred Matiang'i as its 2027 presidential flagbearer.
• September 2025: Uriri MP Mark Nyamita suggests Fred Matiang'i is distancing himself from the united opposition coalition.
• October 2025: Former President Uhuru Kenyatta's renewed political engagement and Fred Matiang'i's presidential bid become key topics in the lead-up to the 2027 elections.
• 2027: Next Kenyan General Election.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely watching the evolving alliances, particularly within the Mt. Kenya region, and the strategies employed by various political actors to garner support. The role of former President Kenyatta in shaping the political narrative and the ability of Fred Matiang'i to build a formidable campaign will be critical. The impact of AI and digital disinformation on the electoral process will also require close monitoring.

Related

The political developments echo past electoral cycles in Kenya, where coalition politics and ethnic mobilization have played significant roles. The debate surrounding retired presidents' involvement in politics has historical precedents, with varying approaches taken by past leaders.